The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its most recent FOMC meeting on Wednesday and it appears the monster they created has finally spooked the central bankers.
As we reported last week, investors are in an era of “irrational exuberance.”
The US stock market is at all-time highs. Meanwhile, market volatility is at lows not seen since the 1990s. In an odd juxtaposition of seemingly contradictory points of view, investors realize the market is overvalued, but at the same time, they believe it will continue to go up. According to a Bank of Ameria survey, 56% of money managers project a “Goldilocks” economic backdrop of steady expansion with tempered inflation.
In an article published at the Mises Wire, economist Thorsten Polleit adds some further analysis and asks a critical question.
Credit spreads have been shrinking, and prices for credit default swaps have fallen to pre-crisis levels. In fact, investors are no longer haunted by concerns about the stability of the financial system, potential credit defaults, and unfavorable surprises in the economy or financial assets markets.
“How come?”
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Last week, Peter Schiff did an interview on The Street and talked about the US stock market, saying, “Well, the bubble keeps getting bigger.” We’ve been talking about this ballooning bubble for months. After a while, it’s easy to blow us off as pessimistic contrarians who just don’t get it. But amazingly, large numbers of investors also believe the stock market is way overvalued.
But they keep buying anyway.
Bank of America called it “irrational exuberance.”
Peter Schiff recently appeared on The Street with Scott Gamm to talk about the stock market. Peter’s analysis was simple and succinct.
Well, the bubble keeps getting bigger.”
So what are we to make of the continuing stock market climb?
Peter Schiff summed it up succinctly in a recent interview on Fox Business.
Well look, I think it’s a bubble.”
When the Fed launched its aggressive monetary policy in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, many free-market economists predicted it would result in massive price inflation. That never materialized. As a result, Keynesian economists like Paul Krugman love to finger-point and mock those who criticize easy money policies designed to “stimulate aggregate demand.” They claim the lack of price inflation proves they were right all along. You can massively increase the money supply during a downturn to stimulate the economy without sparking inflation. Free-market people are wrong.
But just because we don’t see price inflation doesn’t mean there isn’t any inflation at all. After all, the new money has to go someplace. If we don’t see it manifested in rising prices, it’s because we’re looking in the wrong place.
Thirty years ago today, the US stock market had its worst single day in history.
On Oct. 19, 1987, now known simply as “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 508 points. That represented 22.6% of its value.
Over the last couple of year, stocks have enjoyed a meteoric rise. The Dow closed above 23,000 for the first time this week. But in recent months, bankers and investors around the world have expressed started expressing concern about the rapidly inflating stock market bubble and its future impact on the world economy. Just last month, Tiger Management co-founder Julian Robertson unequivocally called the US stock market a bubble and blamed it on the Fed’s interventionist monetary policy.
At some point, the soaring market will fall back to earth, and MarketWatch columnist Howard Gold says the next crash may prove worse than Black Monday.
Stock markets continue to surge higher on a seemingly endless upward trajectory. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones crossed the 23,000 mark for a time and closed just below that threshold at 22,997.
It almost seems like this can go on forever, but Ron Paul said it would eventually come to an end during an interview on CNBC Futures Now last week. He said it reminds him of “delusions and the madness of crowds.”
The price of gold has fallen four straight weeks, primarily driven down by anticipation of Federal Reserve monetary tightening. The kickoff of the Fed’s balance sheet normalization program and the expectation of rising interest rates have helped spark a dollar rally. But few people seem to be paying any attention to the pitfalls of quantitative tightening. In fact, the Fed’s policy to push interest rates higher could turn out to be a havoc-wrecking juggernaut.
