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Original Analysis

POSTED ON October 13, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Government policies – from shutdowns, to stimulus, to vaccine mandates – in response to the coronavirus pandemic have thrown the US economy completely out of whack. Looking at employment reveals just how messed up the economy has become.

The number of Americans quitting their jobs surged to a record high in August. According to the Labor Department Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, job quits increased by 242,000 in August, pushing the total to a record 4.3 million. The quits rate surged to an all-time high of 2.9% in August from 2.7% in July.

POSTED ON September 23, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Peter Schiff says gold will explode and the dollar will implode when the markets figure out the Fed is crying wolf when it comes to monetary tightening.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up another meeting without making any changes to its current extraordinary, loose, inflationary monetary policy. But the central bank did hint that it may start tapering its quantitative easing program “soon.”

POSTED ON September 21, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

A Reuters article by Stefano Rebaudo argued that the Federal Reserve might welcome a “bond market tantrum” that pushes bond yields higher. But does the Fed really want higher interest rates? And what would that mean for the economy?

Despite the post-pandemic economic improvement and wide expectations that the Fed will begin tapering quantitative easing in the near future, bond yields have remained stubbornly low. Ten-year Treasury yields remain stuck just above 1.3%.

POSTED ON August 30, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The “transitory” inflation swamping the country has stubbornly persisted into July.  Producer prices posted a second straight 1% month-over-month increase, which brought the full-year number to a record 7.8%. Twelve-month US export prices rose 17.2%, and nearly 22% if the rate of the first seven months of 2021 were annualized. (I find it telling that those prices – which are subject to no after-the-fact data collection adjustments – are rising at a rate that is nearly triple the CPI).

POSTED ON July 28, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

For months, the markets have anticipated the Fed tightening monetary policy in order to take on rising inflation. At the June FOMC meeting, the central bank even hinted that it might start raising interest rates in 2023 instead of 2024, and the central bankers apparently talked about talking about tapering their quantitative easing bond-buying program. But with all of this talk, the loose monetary policy driving inflation continues unabated. Interest rates remain pegged at zero. The Fed balance sheet sets new records week after week. Where exactly is the exit door?

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