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Original Analysis

POSTED ON January 25, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The Federal Reserve is talking about raising interest rates. But the US economy is buried under piles of debt. I’ve been asking how this is going to work for months. Apparently, the question has finally occurred to the mainstream.

A CNBC article declared, “Fed rate hikes will intensify a global debt crisis, research warns.”

POSTED ON January 17, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Elizabeth Warren and others are running around blaming inflation on greedy corporations’ “price gouging.” Of course, this narrative falls apart when you realize producer prices are rising faster than consumer prices. If anything, producers are letting consumers gouge them by not passing on all of their rising costs.

POSTED ON January 17, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

With 2021 now in the rear-view mirror, I believe that future financial historians may regard it as the year of peak speculation.

While the history of American markets is littered with periods of irrational exuberance, none of those episodes can really match the current market for outright delusion and the blatant disregard for basic investment discipline. 

POSTED ON January 12, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Joe Biden keeps touting the “booming” economic recovery. And of course, he’s taking credit for it. But is the economy really booming?

If you look at GDP growth, it certainly appears the US economy is in the midst of a robust recovery. But economic growth is relative. And when your baseline is an economy that was shut down, any growth looks good. Of course, there is going to be growth from virtually zero.

But there is an even deeper problem with using GDP to gauge economic health. Like the government CPI formula, the GDP is calculated in a way that creates an illusion.

POSTED ON January 11, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Ireland has added more gold to its reserves as inflation worries mount.

According to the latest data, the Central Bank of Ireland purchased $88 million ($78 million euros) in gold in November, adding to the two tons it added to its holdings in previous months. With the latest purchases, the Irish central bank has boosted its gold reserves by over three tons in a three-month period.

POSTED ON January 11, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

We talk a lot about how the Fed keeps its big fat thumb on the Treasury market. But it also has its big fat thumb on the housing market. And if the Fed really does follow through with its taper and its plans to shrink its balance sheet, it will have a big effect on the housing market.

If you’ve ever held something under tension down with your thumb and suddenly release it, you know what happens.

Pop!

POSTED ON January 10, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The Federal Reserve is talking about raising interest rates. Well, that’s going to be a big problem for American consumers who are running up debt at a torrid pace. This is yet another reason why the Fed can’t do what it’s claiming it will do.

Consumer debt jumped 11% year-on-year in November, according to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve. It was the biggest single-month jump in consumer debt in 20 years.

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