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Original Analysis

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March 29, 2025Original Analysis

Doomsday Policy and Dirty Ticket Pricing

What can dubious pricing strategies of airlines in the 1990s teach us about the dynamics of the U.S. government? The Airline Tariff Publishing Company (ATPCO) allowed airlines to post their prices online long before the airlines actually had to commit to offering those prices to consumers. This was supposed to allow freedom of information on […]

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March 26, 2025Original Analysis

 Liberty’s Strongest Defender

Whether it is industry or immigration, both parties emphasize the freedoms they protect, wishing to paint themselves as the true party of liberty. Their focuses are both quite different yet they rely on telling their base that the other party is coming for their most fundamental freedoms. This argument works because it plays upon one […]

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March 26, 2025Original Analysis

Consumer Confidence Plunges as Recession Signs Multiply

U.S. consumer confidence suffered a sharp blow yesterday, plummeting 7.2 points to 92.9, according to the latest data from the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Alarmingly, the Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook on the economy, tumbled to 65.2—its lowest level in 12 years—breaking well below the critical 80-point threshold that traditionally signals an […]

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March 25, 2025Original Analysis

Can Tariffs and DOGE Eliminate the Income Tax?

Freshly-confirmed U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently appeared on CBS News, declaring that President Trump aims to eliminate income taxes for Americans earning less than $150,000 per year. Lutnick touted Trump’s vision for tariffs to replace the revenue lost from this massive tax cut.

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March 25, 2025Original Analysis

Flash PMI Data: Manufacturing Struggles

The latest S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index for March signaled a mixed economic outlook, rising to 53.5 from February’s 51.6. Stronger performance in services gave optimism, as the Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index surged notably to 54.3, up from the prior month’s 51.0. However, manufacturing painted a different, troubling picture: […]

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March 22, 2025Original Analysis

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Cuts Amid Rising Inflation 

In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at around 4.3% on Wednesday but signaled potential rate cuts later this year, highlighting policymakers’ growing concerns over slowing economic growth and persistent inflation pressures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that external economists have revised upward their estimates of a recession […]

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March 14, 2025Original Analysis

Bessent is Right: The Economy Needs a Detox

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is right when he says that the economy needs a “detox.” To fix the problems created by decades of artificially-low interest rates, soaring deficits, out-of-control spending, a dying manufacturing base, and central bank meddling, there has to be a little bit (or a lot) of pain.

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March 11, 2025Original Analysis

Stocks Falter as Trump Hints at Economic Shift

Major stock indexes stumbled on Monday following remarks from former President Donald Trump that suggested the U.S. economy might be in for a transition period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 890 points, a 2.1% decline, while the S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the Nasdaq Composite slid 4%. Government bond yields ticked lower, with the […]

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March 6, 2025Original Analysis

To Tariff or Not to Tariff?

First there was the first Trump trade war, which appeared to end before it began. Now, a dizzying Round Two has begun of the Trump tariff saga, and it isn’t clear what concessions will be made. But there is a common denominator: things change quickly under a Trump administration, with a rapid-fire news cycle and […]

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February 27, 2025Original Analysis

The Empirically Significant Frontier Spirit

SchiffGold’s commitment to gold arises from a strong belief in individual liberty, which is almost synonymous with what it means to be American. While personal independence from government overreach is informally a core American trait, it arose from unique historical circumstances that separated America from most other independent new nations. The American founding was ideologically […]

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