The CPI data for September came in hotter than expected at 0.4%. That pushed the yearly gain to 5.4%. But an honest CPI calculation would come in even hotter.
I am doing something different this month. In past reviews of the CPI, I typically take the BLS data and recalculate the values to get a more detailed number that is rounded to two decimal points instead of one. This methodology also allows me to show the impact of each component on the top-line number.
For the second month in a row, the jobs numbers in September came in well below expectations.
The Labor Department reported an increase of only 194,000 jobs, well below the estimated 500,000. The big miss was similar to August’s report.
Despite the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.8% from 5.2% and an upward August revision of 131,000 jobs, this is the weakest jobs report since January.
The US trade deficit surged to yet another new record in August as Americans are importing more and more services to go along with all of their imported goods.
The August trade deficit came in at $73.25 billion, 4.2% higher than the July trade deficit of $70.3 billion. The August deficit set a new record edging out the previous high of $73.23 billion set in June.
Please note: the COTs report was published 10/1/2021 for the period ending 9/28/2021. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
The Commitment of Traders analysis last month showed a potentially bullish setup in both gold and silver. The washout of Managed Money Net Long contracts that occurred in early August appeared to be over and a rebound was underway. Unfortunately, it looks like there was another washout in September. As highlighted recently, it’s possible exhaustion may be near. However, if another washout occurs, it would probably drive Managed Money net positioning negative for the first time since Nov 2018.
Below is a look at the details.
Even as the Fed talked about tightening monetary policy, the money supply grew at the fastest pace since last winter.
In the latest period, M2 increased by $263 billion. This is a major jump compared to the last two months and is the highest month-over-month growth since February. The same period in 2020 saw M2 only grow $62B.
One of the major technical indicators for investors is the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) vs the 200 DMA. This analysis examines these moving averages for both gold and silver along with other technical indicators.
Gold and silver have both significantly drained from the Comex inventory since August 1.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.