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Exploring Finance

POSTED ON June 26, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

After a big miss on the Powell/Brainard nominations in November, the price analysis has been fairly accurate. Identifying the initial breakout above $1800, mentioning that $1900 was fragile support, and last month concluding that gold had found a bottom around $1800.

For the past month, gold has been consolidating within a tight range around $1850. The data suggests the next move is most likely up. Lots of indicators have bottomed, which leaves little downside remaining. The market has also priced in an extremely aggressive Fed and held up very well over that time.

POSTED ON June 17, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

Outflows of gold from Comex vaults have accelerated. Meanwhile, there is some shuffling of inventories of silver.

This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.

POSTED ON June 7, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The April trade deficit came in at -$87B. This was the first time in 5 months that a new record had not been set (pink dot below). The Net Goods Deficit remained below -$100B for the fifth straight month. This Trade Deficit comes on the heels of an absolutely massive -$108B Deficit in March. It’s likely that some of the April deficit was counted in March, so expect a rebound in the May number.

POSTED ON June 7, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The Treasury increased the total debt by $125B in May after a brief drop in April. This brings the total debt increase so far in 2022 to $880B. More importantly, though, the cost to service the debt is exploding. Total annualized interest has increased by $40B or 13.5% since the start of the year!

POSTED ON June 6, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

Please note: the COTs report was published 6/3/2022 for the period ending 5/31/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

Gold

Since the peak on March 8, Managed Money has massively reduced its Net Long positions by 98k contracts or 66%. Despite massive selling, the gold price has actually held up fairly well. The last time Managed Money net longs dropped this low in February, gold was struggling at the $1800 level, versus the struggle at $1850 now.

POSTED ON June 3, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The May jobs report was widely regarded as strong. The US economy added 390,000 jobs, according to the latest data. But a deeper dive into that data reveals that the labor market might not be as strong as the mainstream spin is leading you to believe. Even with all the new jobs, hiring slowed in five out of eight sectors.

POSTED ON May 28, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The following provides an in-depth analysis of the COMEX futures options market for gold and silver.

Gold: Recent Delivery Month

Gold started June delivery with 22,394 contracts outstanding. This is below April and December, but above August, October, and February. It is about on par with last June.

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