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Exploring Finance

POSTED ON January 22, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

For the past year, gold has been battling around the $1,800 an ounce psychological mark. Silver has faced a similar up and down battle near $25, albeit with more volatility.

Gold finished 2021 strong at $1830 but then a pullback happened followed by a quick rebound back above $1800 and now $1830. Will $1800 hold this time and provide support? Can silver break through $25 and unleash the bulls? Obviously, no one knows for sure, but taking a look at some indicators can provide some insight.

POSTED ON January 21, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

An article earlier this month reviewed the massive volume of physical metal leaving the bank House accounts over the last two years. December 2021 finished the year off with a massive drawdown in House account inventories. While the drawdown continues across most accounts, Bank of America has tried to recoup some of the physical metal that left its holdings in December. As the data below shows, this has led to an extremely strong January to kick-off 2022.

POSTED ON January 19, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

Last month, we saw a small increase in metal stored in COMEX vaults, but that turned out to be a blip in the trend. Metal is leaving the COMEX vaults again.

This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.

POSTED ON January 14, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

In the calendar year 2021, federal tax revenues surged by an incredible 25% compared to 2020 and were up 22.8% over 2019 (pre-COVID). But the surge in tax revenues was not enough to overcome a record $6.8 trillion in spending, breaking the spending record set in 2020 by 1.6%.

POSTED ON January 7, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The debt ceiling was raised in December and the Treasury responded immediately, adding $709 billion in debt over the month.

To be fair, $470 billion of this was non-marketable, as shown below.

Note: Non-Marketable consists almost entirely of debt the government owes to itself (e.g., debt owed to Social Security or public retirement)

POSTED ON January 7, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

November 2021 charted a total trade deficit of -$80.2B just shy of the record -$81.4B in September. However, the data this month is far more concerning when digging into the details.

After a massive surge in the trade deficit occurred in September, October saw a big pullback to -$67.1B. The details showed that the volatility was driven by a data anomaly where Exported Goods from September were pulled into October. This created a series of Exported Goods values of $149.8B in August followed by $142.7B and $158.8B in September and October. Essentially, $8B moved from September to October, driving the trade deficit to all-time records.

POSTED ON January 6, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

I love exploring data to try and understand complex situations. My career has mainly been in finance giving rise to the name: Exploring Finance. Using data to explore the current financial landscape shows an unsustainable situation, which has led me to identify gold and silver as the best defensive investments.

POSTED ON January 4, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

After losing its grip in 2020, managed money is back in the driver’s seat pushing the price of gold and silver around. This analysis is written to explain the short-term price movements, which can be confounding given the strong fundamental backdrop. After very low volatility and a disappointing year in precious metals, it’s likely activity will pick up in 2022. Tracking the positioning of managed money will provide insights into the short-term price moves.

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