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Exploring Finance

POSTED ON June 30, 2023  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The Fed managed to reduce its balance sheet by $45 billion last month. The majority of this was in Treasuries of 1-5 year maturities with a reduction of $55B. The next biggest reduction was in mortgage-backed securities MBS totaling $20 billion. This fell short of the target of $35 billion. In fact, the Fed has still never reached its MBS target since balance sheet reduction began.

Meanwhile, the central bank continues to add bank bailout loans to its balance sheet.

POSTED ON June 27, 2023  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

With a hawkish Fed and dollar strength, gold has dropped below $1,950 an ounce, but the technicals appear to indicate that we are at or near the end of a correction.

The technical analysis last month was published when gold was around $1975 and concluded:

The indicators are now mostly neutral with a bearish lean. There are some slightly bullish indicators, but nothing strong enough to give a clear signal. This suggests the price could drift lower until it finds the right catalyst to reverse. There should be plenty of catalysts on the horizon, but the biggest one will be how the Fed responds to the next crisis. Until then, pressure is pointing downward.

That conclusion has been accurate over the last month as the price has drifted lower with any rallies being sold.

POSTED ON June 21, 2023  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The bleed of metal from COMEX vaults has resumed and silver inventories have hit record lows with 28 paper claims for each ounce of physical silver.

This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.

POSTED ON June 5, 2023  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

Please note: the CoTs report was published 06/02/2023 for the period ending 05/30/2023. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

Managed money has once again bailed on gold, which drove the price back below $2000 an ounce despite the “Other” group stepping in to absorb some of the selling.

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