Peter's Blog

M2 Money Supply Grows by Most in 2 Years

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

Delivery Demand on the Comex Remains at Record Levels for Gold and Silver

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

Treasury Has Paid Out $941B in Interest Over the Last 12 Months

The government hit the debt ceiling back in January and has been pursuing extraordinary measures since. This usually means dipping into things like Civil Service Retirement funds to free up cash and avoid borrowing any more money.

Jobs: Last Three Months Saw Downward Revisions of 57k on Average

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

Did Someone Call the Comex Bluff?

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

13-Week Money Supply Growth Continues to Decelerate

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

Federal Budget: Q1 2025 – DOGE has not Moved the Needle

Federal Budget The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit. The government fiscal year closes at the end of […]

 Jobs: A Decent Job Report Flew Way Under the Radar

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

Surging Trade Deficit Likely to Reverse in the Months Ahead

The Trade Deficit is one of the two components of the twin deficits; the other being the federal budget deficit which was last reviewed in January. The trade deficit used to be a number that received a ton of attention in the 1980s and 1990s because it was determined to be a strong gauge of […]

CFTC CoTs Report: Managed Money has Lost Control of the Gold Market

Please note: the CoTs report was published 3/28/2025 for the period ending 3/25/2024. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will […]