Jobs: A Decent Job Report Flew Way Under the Radar
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
Current Trends
Did anyone even realize it was a jobs release day or were people too distracted with the trade war and stock market carnage?
The Headline Report showed 228k jobs gained in March. The Household Survey was close, especially relative to history with 201k jobs added.
Figure: 1 Primary Report vs Household Survey – Monthly
For the year, the Household Survey is still higher but that is due only to the data anomaly in January.
Figure: 2 Primary Report vs Household Survey – Annual
Switching to the headline report…
The BLS publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). In March, there was a very minor decrease in jobs from new business.
Figure: 3 Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions – Monthly
For the year, the birth death is now neutral.
Figure: 4 Primary Unadjusted Report With Birth Death Assumptions – Monthly
Digging Into the Headline Report
The 228k jobs number was accompanied by an increase in unemployment rate to 4.2%.
Figure: 5 Change by sector
Jobs by Category
When looking over the last 12-month trend, this month was mostly above trend, except for government. Surprisingly, the government numbers were actually positive.
Figure: 6 Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers. The table also shows that the Government numbers were negative at a federal level (barely) and positive and a state and local level.
Figure: 7 Labor Market Detail
Revisions
The chart below shows how the jobs data has been revised. January and February were both revised lower.
Figure: 8 Revisions
Over the last twelve months, jobs have been revised down by about 23k per month.
Figure: 9 Revisions
More Detail in the Household Survey
Another level of detail in the Household report shows full-time vs part-time job holders. This month shows that most new jobs added were full-time jobs.
Figure: 10 Full Time vs Part Time
Historical Perspective
The chart below shows data going back to 1955.
Figure: 11 Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month it increased slightly to 62.5%.
Figure: 12 Labor Market Distribution
Conclusion
Not sure anyone cares about the jobs report after what happened the last two days in the stock market, but this month was very average. 228k was slightly above trend, but not in a major way.
It will be interesting if/when the government job cuts start showing up in the report. It is also pretty much considered a lock that we are headed into a recession which could also start showing up in the job numbers.
