Peter's Blog

The Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped a quiet bombshell on September 9, unveiling a preliminary benchmark revision that erased 911,000 jobs from March 2025 payroll tallies. The 0.6% markdown is roughly triple the average adjustment of the past decade and instantly casts doubt on months of breezy “resilient labor market” headlines. Almost the entire shortfall […]

On Monday’s episode of the Commodity Culture podcast, Peter joins host Jesse Day and walks listeners through what he sees as a pivotal moment for precious metals and for the dollar. He argues that gold quietly began a new leg of its bull market in 2024, that the labor market is weaker than officials admit, […]

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.  Current Trends  The jobs report showed […]

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller used a Thursday night speech at the Economic Club of Miami to press, yet again, for easier money. Declaring that “the time has come to ease monetary policy and move it to a more neutral stance,” the long-time dove said he would have cut rates in July and plans […]

Three weeks after the Federal Open Market Committee opted to leave its target range unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, fresh details from the July meeting shed light on why policymakers are growing uneasy even as they stay on hold. Minutes released Wednesday reveal officials wrestling with sticky price pressures, new tariffs, and a cooling labor market—all while […]

Economic cross-currents, political headwinds, and an elevated gold price framed Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin’s August 12 remarks to The Health Management Academy in Chicago. Barkin told the Four Seasons crowd that U.S. real GDP expanded at just 1.2 percent during the first half of 2025, less than half last year’s 2.5 […]

As another month of steady interest rates passes by, the Fed’s favorite claim– that the central bank is “data-dependent”– continues to be made. This claim, of course, is not true. The Fed’s actions are dictated by incentives and pressures that favor cheap credit, not objective data. The following article was originally published by the Mises […]

The summer labor market is losing momentum. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said Friday that non-farm payrolls grew by only 73,000 in July, barely budging overall employment since April and capping two straight months of sharp downward revisions. The headline unemployment rate stayed at 4.2 percent—on paper a healthy figure—yet a closer look shows […]

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

The once-red-hot U.S. labor market is cooling at the edges. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released July 29, shows total openings falling to 7.4 million in June—a 4.4 percent openings rate. Hiring was flat at 5.2 million, while total separations came in slightly lower at 5.1 million. […]