Peter's Blog

Will December Comex Delivery Confirm Election Sell-Off is Over?

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

Federal Budget: Trump Inherits an Absolute Fiscal Mess – $1.8T Annual Deficit

Federal Budget: Trump Inherits an Absolute Fiscal Mess – $1.8T Annual Deficit

Treasury Adds $1.1T of debt in last 4 months and $2T YTD

Current Trends The Treasury has still been issuing tons of short-term debt to finance exploding deficits. In the last 4 months, $1.1T in new debt has been added, with the vast majority being financed by debt maturing in less than 10 years. Over $400B has been debt maturing in less than 1 year. This will […]

Jobs: Headline Report is a Disaster, Household Survey is a Train Wreck

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

Money Supply Grows for 11 Straight Months

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

The Technicals: Gold Still Looks Good, Silver Looks Even Better

This analysis attempts to look at different metrics to understand the current momentum in the gold and silver markets. It is meant as an analysis on potential price direction in the very short-term (a few weeks to 1-2 months).

Jobs: Is a Strong Jobs Report Tied to an Upcoming Election?

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

CFTC CoTs Report: Be Advised – Gold is Overbought Among Hedge Funds

Please note: the CoTs report was published 09/27/2024 for the period ending 09/24/2024. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will […]

Comex Gold: October Open Interest is Double The Amount from Last Year

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

August Money Supply Grows by Most Since December 2021

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.