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Federal Budget The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers every month. The charts and tables below give an in-depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going, and the surplus or deficit. This month saw a $22B deficit.
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
A Major Trend Change In 2023, the Treasury added $2.6T to the national debt. While that number alone should be enough to scare anyone, the details reveal something even more concerning. $2T of it, or 77%, was financed entirely with short-term Treasury Bills maturing in less than a year. The chart below shows the debt […]
The Fed managed to reduce its balance sheet by $45 billion last month. The majority of this was in Treasuries of 1-5 year maturities with a reduction of $55B. The next biggest reduction was in mortgage-backed securities MBS totaling $20 billion. This fell short of the target of $35 billion. In fact, the Fed has […]
Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in May increased $131B. This is the first growth in adjusted M2 since last July and the largest increase since December 2021.
With a hawkish Fed and dollar strength, gold has dropped below $1,950 an ounce, but the technicals appear to indicate that we are at or near the end of a correction. The technical analysis last month was published when gold was around $1975 and concluded: The indicators are now mostly neutral with a bearish lean. There are […]
June is wrapping up strong for gold at the COMEX with 20,101 contracts being delivered. There are still 583 contracts open that have not been delivered, but the majority of the contracts have been completed. Meanwhile, were seeing more and more stress on silver and platinum.
The bleed of metal from COMEX vaults has resumed and silver inventories have hit record lows with 28 paper claims for each ounce of physical silver. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical […]
The Federal Government ran a deficit last month of $240B. Revenue continues to be at or below levels last year while expenses continue to grow.
The CPI rose in May by 0.12%. Energy accounted for -0.25% of the move. This means without the move in Energy, the CPI would have risen by 0.37% which annualizes to a rate of 4.5%. This shows that inflation is still quite problematic.
