Peter’s Blog

As expected, gold has turned in a fairly strong start to the month on the COMEX. It’s below April but is still early in the contract.

Gold is wrapping up May which has slightly exceeded the last minor month in March.

Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in April fell $167B. As the chart below shows, this is now the 9th consecutive monthly drop. This is also the second-largest drop of all time, behind only last month.

The technical analysis last month highlighted the mixed environment at the time: The indicators are once again giving some mixed signals. The price action is definitely needing further consolidation. However, other indicators suggest a market that is just getting started. … Either way, downside does seem limited at this point, especially considering all the bad news has […]

Banks have restocked gold recently, but with the massive drawdown in inventories over the last year, the recent increase has done little to actually replenish those supplies. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the […]

The Federal Government ran a surplus last month, as it typically does in April due to the tax deadline. The surplus was $176B which was 43% lower than the surplus last April. As the chart below shows, this was driven entirely by collapsing revenues as expenses actually fell as well.

The CPI rose in March by 0.37%, which was much larger than last month’s 0.06%. As shown below, this was driven by the energy component flipping from negative to positive. And there’s even worse news. The math is about to turn on the CPI calculation.

While the US government is not currently adding to the national debt due to being up against the debt ceiling, it is working overtime trying to keep the government afloat. Significantly, the interest on the national debt is skyrocketing even with the temporary lull in borrowing.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 256k jobs were added in April with major revisions down in previous months. Meanwhile, the Household Survey reported only 139k jobs in April, the lowest amount since November last year.

In 5 days, the COMEX has seen 4,190 contracts open and stand for immediate delivery. This is the strongest start to a month going back at least 2 years, which includes the start of the war in Ukraine and the February 2021 Reddit silver squeeze.