Federal Budget: Trump Inherits an Absolute Fiscal Mess – $1.8T Annual Deficit

Federal Budget: Trump Inherits an Absolute Fiscal Mess – $1.8T Annual Deficit

Federal Budget

The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit.

The government fiscal year closes at the end of September. This year, the data shows the government ran a $1.8T budget deficit. Even though September actually showed a small surplus of $64B, the two months prior showed a deficit of $624B, which means the last quarter of the fiscal year had a $560B deficit!

Figure: 1 Monthly Federal Budget

On average, September actually experiences a deficit which makes the surplus this year a bit of an outlier. But if you look at the months before, it is clear July and August were way worse than the average deficit in those months.

Figure: 2 Current vs Historical

We can look at the quarter in aggregate using the Sankey diagram below that shows the $560B deficit which means the US has a quarterly shortfall of revenue equal to 32% of expenses.

Figure: 3 Quarterly Federal Budget Sankey

This latest quarter was the worst quarter since Q2 2023.

Figure: 4 Quarterly Historical Deficit/Surplus for Previous Five Years

The next two charts show the quarterly revenue and costs broken down by expense type. You can see how last quarter (Apr-Jun) was helped by a surge in revenue from Individual and Corp Taxes. This is a result of the April 15 tax deadline.

Figure: 5 Quarterly Receipts

The chart below shows how expenses are spread across lots of services and have reached a new equilibrium way above sustainable levels. Since Covid, expenses are just much higher than they were pre-Covid.

Figure: 6 Quarterly Outlays

Interest Expense has ballooned higher to $881B.

Figure: 7 TTM Interest Expense

Historical Perspective

Zooming out and looking over the history of the budget back to 1980 shows a complete picture. The change since Covid is quite dramatic.

Figure: 8 Trailing 12 Months (TTM)

The next two charts zoom in on the recent periods to show the change when compared to pre-Covid. These charts show spending and revenue on a trailing 12 month basis period over period.

Figure: 9 Annual Federal Receipts

Figure: 10 Annual Federal Expenses

Finally, we finish with a Sankey showing TTM Deficit was $1.8B which is a massive issue going forward, representing 27% of all government spending. The government cannot afford to keep printing such massive debt figures.

Figure: 11 TTM Federal Budget Sankey