Peter's Blog

The odds are set at 94% that the federal reserve will cut rates following the September 17th meeting. Trump has pressured Powell for this for months, and if the Wednesday meeting confirms these rate cuts, it will be a historic step for the Fed. Never before has Executive Branch’s control of money been seen so […]

With another round of jobs data released last week, another revision to June’s numbers reveal two startling truths. First, jobs actually decreased in June, contrary to the initial estimates. Second, and arguably worse, the Trump administration’s cover-up of these numbers is as bad as critics thought. The following article was originally published by the Mises […]

On his latest podcast, Peter takes aim at a string of recent policy choices that are undermining the dollar, inflating asset bubbles, and exposing taxpayers to risk. He walks through the latest jobs data, the anomaly of easing into an inflationary cycle, the privatization of profits at the expense of public losses, and the constitutional […]

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.  Current Trends  The jobs report showed […]

On Sunday’s episode of the Peter Schiff Show, Peter walks through a recent appellate court ruling on President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and ties that legal news to broader themes: political incentives around taxation, the fragility of budget narratives that rely on tariff revenue, the danger of politicizing the Federal Reserve, and why fiat-driven policies make […]

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.  Breaking Down the Balance Sheet  In March, the Fed announced a further reduction in the balance sheet runoff from $25B a month to […]

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).  The data below looks at […]

After posturing to use tariffs to eliminate income tax, the Trump administration has now shifted to a narrative that they’ll pay off deficits. Both promises are hollow.  Deficits as massive and persistent as ours demand massive Treasury issuance. That means markets have to absorb ever-larger supply, pushing yields higher if demand fails to keep up. […]

Recent policy from the White House has protectionists lauding President Trump’s so-called “trade deals” around the world. Regardless of the legality of these policies, it’s certain that they entail grave economic risks for the US. The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter […]

On Monday President Trump signed an executive order that temporarily keeps additional duties on Chinese imports from snapping back into force, extending a 90-day tariff reprieve that would have expired just after midnight on August 12. The new directive, “Further Modifying Reciprocal Tariff Rates to Reflect Ongoing Discussions with the People’s Republic of China,” pushes […]