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Gold and Silver Comex Vaults Both See 1% Fall in Total Inventory

Both physical gold and silver have been draining from Comex vaults this year. There was a 1% decline in stocks of both metals over the last month. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze […]

A More Accurate CPI: Up .97% MoM and 7.1% YoY

The CPI data for September came in hotter than expected at 0.4%. That pushed the yearly gain to 5.4%. But an honest CPI calculation would come in even hotter. I am doing something different this month. In past reviews of the CPI, I typically take the BLS data and recalculate the values to get a more […]

Another Big Jobs Miss: All But Two Categories Are Below The 12-Month Trend

For the second month in a row, the jobs numbers in September came in well below expectations. The Labor Department reported an increase of only 194,000 jobs, well below the estimated 500,000. The big miss was similar to August’s report. Despite the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.8% from 5.2% and an upward August revision of […]

Surge in Imported Services Sends Trade Deficit to New Record

The US trade deficit surged to yet another new record in August as Americans are importing more and more services to go along with all of their imported goods. The August trade deficit came in at $73.25 billion, 4.2% higher than the July trade deficit of $70.3 billion. The August deficit set a new record […]

Hedge Funds Pile into Short Positions During September

Please note: the COTs report was published 10/1/2021 for the period ending 9/28/2021. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. The Commitment of Traders analysis last month showed a potentially bullish setup in both gold and silver. The washout of Managed Money Net Long contracts that occurred in early August appeared to be over and a […]

Delivery Results: Silver Down and Gold Mixed

As we move into October, physical silver delivery is down on Comex while gold was a mixed bag. This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.

Fed Absorbs $60B of 1 to 5-Year US Treasuries in September

The Fed keeps talk, talk, talking about tapering quantitative easing, but the balance sheet continues to get bigger and bigger and bigger. The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.45 trillion, up by$115 billion from the prior month-end.

M2 Grows at Fastest Pace Since February

Even as the Fed talked about tightening monetary policy, the money supply grew at the fastest pace since last winter. In the latest period, M2 increased by $263 billion. This is a major jump compared to the last two months and is the highest month-over-month growth since February. The same period in 2020 saw M2 only […]

Price Analysis Shows Bearish Indicators but Exhaustion May Be Near

One of the major technical indicators for investors is the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) vs the 200 DMA. This analysis examines these moving averages for both gold and silver along with other technical indicators.

Comex Countdown: Will Gold Lead Silver Higher?

This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex as we move from September into October. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.

Gold and Silver Both Drain from Comex Inventory

Gold and silver have both significantly drained from the Comex inventory since August 1. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal […]

Recent CPI Dip May Prove “Transitory”

The latest seasonally adjusted month-over-month inflation rate was 0.3% (vs. .4% expected), with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.3% (vs 5.4% expected). The reason for the fall from July’s .47% pace was spread across multiple categories, specifically Commodities, Food, Shelter, and Transportation. While the CPI drop-off since the June peak appears to prove the […]

Breaking Down the $171 Billion August Federal Budget Deficit

The Federal Budget Deficit for August 2021 was $171B which was down from the $302B in July. The chart below shows the Federal Budget for the previous 18 months.

Did The Treasury Raid $250 Billion from Government Retirement Accounts (Again)?

The Treasury bumped up against the debt ceiling at the end of July. Since then, it has been using “extraordinary measures” to allow the Government to keep hemorrhaging cash without having to increase the debt ceiling. The chart below shows the month-over-month change in debt for August equal to $0. Despite zero net change, there […]

Commitment of Traders Shows a Potentially Bullish Setup in Gold and Silver

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COTs) report is released once a week and shows a breakdown of open interest by trader category. The CFTC breaks down open interest by: Managed Money (e.g. Hedge Funds) Producers (e.g. gold mining companies) Swaps (e.g. banks) Non-Reportable Other

Big Jobs Miss: Leisure and Hospitality Add Zero Jobs

The Labor Department released its August jobs report on Friday. To say the numbers were disappointing would be an understatement. According to the report, there was an increase of only 235k jobs, well below the estimated 720k. That’s a miss of nearly 500k jobs.

July Trade Deficit Shrinks but Trailing Twelve Month Number Hits New Record

The month-on-month trade deficit fell in July but remains far larger than it was a year ago. And the Trailing Twelve Month figure hit a new record.

Delivery Results: Gold and Silver Both Underwhelm

This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail. Delivery for both gold and silver was underwhelming.

While Fed Talks About Taper, Balance Sheet Grows $111 Billion in August

The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.33 trillion, up $111 billion from the prior month-end. The chart below shows how the Fed Balance sheet has grown by instrument over the last 18 months. The major surge from COVID can be clearly seen as $2.5T was added within 2 months. The monthly changes since then reflect […]

Money Supply Growth Rebounds But Trend Is Down

M2 Money Supply is measured by the Federal Reserve to calculate the amount of money in the financial system. Historically, the term inflation was defined as an expansion of the money supply that generally led to higher prices. Therefore increases in M2 is the measure of inflation. This analysis reviews the changes in money supply as a potential indication of future […]

September 21 Comex Delivery Countdown: Gold Shows Life, Silver Mixed

This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex set for September 21, 2021. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.

Aug 2021 Technical Analysis: Gold & Silver Bullish or Bearish?

The price of gold and silver can be driven by many variables both technical and fundamental. Fundamental drivers include Fed meetings/speeches, its balance sheet, inflation data, jobs numbers, market risk appetite, etc. This analysis examines some of the more technical factors driving prices (e.g. Comex OI, Miners price action, technical price action). The CFCT Cots report can […]

Comex Inventory Aug: Gold Slowly Drains But Silver Surges

This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock data at the Comex. This is different than the delivery countdown that looks to see how many contracts will stand for delivery each month. Instead, it shows […]

US Budget Deficit Up 73% in July as Tax Season Ends

The US government ran yet another massive budget deficit in July. The shortfall was particularly larger on a month-on-month basis with tax season ending and the flow of money into the Treasury slowing. The following analysis puts digs deeper into the numbers and puts them into some historical context.

July CPI: Many Price Categories Are Still Increasing

For the first time this year, CPI data came in within expectations. Many in the mainstream took this as a sign “transitory” inflation might be cooling. But many prices continue to increase. The BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) has become one of the most anticipated data points each month. The CPI has become a controversial […]

Government Jobs Account for Nearly a Quarter of July Gains

The BLS provides an employment picture of the US on the first Friday of every month. It estimates how many jobs were added or subtracted by sector. While some of the assumptions may be controversial (e.g. the birth/death model) and job numbers are prone to revisions, it remains the most widely anticipated statistic each month by […]

Total US Debt Shrinks by $101 Billion into Debt Ceiling Saga

“Just because something is inevitable, does not make it imminent, but eventually the future arrives” The US Government is on an unsustainable debt trajectory. Even though the Federal Reserve has acknowledged this fact, most mainstream pundits consider it a distant problem or even not an issue at all. They argue that debt fears have raged […]

June Trade Deficit Sets New Record of $75.7 Billion

The US Trade Balance shows the deficit and surplus of US trade for Imports and Exports. A deficit occurs when imports are greater than exports. When the Trade Balance is in deficit (which it has been for decades), it accounts for one of the two components of the Twin Deficits. The Fiscal Deficit accounts for […]

CFTC COTS Analysis July 2021

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COTs) report is released once a week and shows a breakdown of open interest by trader category. As discussed in the gold/silver pricing analysis, Open Interest can be a major factor in the metal price. The CFTC breaks down open interest by:

Comex Delivery Results: August 2021 Contract

This analysis focuses on gold and silver data provided by the Comex/CME Group. The Comex (or CME Group) is a global derivatives market that allows for trading in futures contracts. They allow two parties (a long and a short) to speculate or hedge in specific commodity markets and guarantee the transaction in the process. The majority […]

Fed Balance Sheet July 2021: 143B Added

The Federal Reserve has three primary tools to conduct Monetary Policy: reserve requirements, the discount rate, and open market operations (Quantitative Easing). Open market operations are how the Fed uses its balance sheet to provide liquidity to the market. More details can be found here. The Fed defines Open Market Operations as:

Money Supply July 2021: Growth Rate Sees Massive Drop

M2 Money Supply is measured by the Federal Reserve to calculate the amount of Money in the financial system. The Fed defines M2 as: Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. Historically, […]

Comex Delivery Countdown: Mid-July Update

This analysis focuses on gold and silver data provided by the Comex/CME Group. See the article What is the Comex for more detail. Silver: Recent Delivery Month First Position Day is when contracts must post 100% margin to stand for delivery. Once delivery begins, contracts can settle in cash, or more contracts can be opened […]

US Budget Deficit Analysis: June 2021

The US Budget Analysis shows the deficit or surplus of the US Federal Government. A deficit occurs when spending (outlays) is greater than income (receipts). When the US Budget is in deficit (which it has been for over 2 decades), it accounts for one of the two components of the Twin Deficits. The trade deficit […]

Gold and Silver Pricing Update: Mid July 2021

Many variables can drive the price of gold and silver. These include Fed meetings/speeches, inflation data, jobs numbers, risk appetite, etc. Some people speculate that the price is suppressed and manipulated by the banks and Fed. While coordinated suppression is not impossible, there are other more probable explanations for gold and silver price action. This […]

US Debt Analysis: June 2021

The US Government is on an unsustainable debt trajectory. Even though the Federal Reserve has acknowledged this fact, most mainstream figures consider it a distant problem or even not an issue at all. The argument highlights that debt fears have raged since the debt crossed $1T decades ago and no negative consequences have materialized. This […]

Comex Stock Update: July 2021

This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. It provides historical context and defines many of the terms used below. While it is exciting to track the countdown to First Notice to determine how many contracts will stand for delivery in […]

Trade Deficit Analysis: May 2021

The US trade balance shows the deficit and surplus of US trade for imports and exports. A deficit occurs when imports are greater than exports. When the trade balance is in deficit, it accounts for one of the two components of the twin deficits. The fiscal deficit accounts for the other component and will be […]

Comex June/July 2021 Update

This analysis focuses on gold and silver data provided by the Comex/CME Group. The Comex allows investors/traders to gain exposure to commodities using futures contracts. Contracts can settle for delivery of the physical commodity. Tracking the demand for physical metal can give better insight into the market. See the article What is the Comex for […]

The Fed in a Box Part 2: They Cannot End Quantitative Easing

If the Fed tapers QE, it may reveal waning appetite for long-term treasuries The Treasury may have used its cash balance reserve to anchor inflation expectations If inflation persists, the Fed may have to increase rather than decrease QE Note: By definition, inflation is an expansion of the money supply. In this article, inflation will […]

The Fed in a Box Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates

3 Key Takeaways The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget Introduction The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming […]

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