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Original Analysis

POSTED ON November 25, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

When I was a kid, we used to say some things only “sound good on paper.” In other words, they seem like good plans, but there is no way they’re going to work in the real world.

That’s socialism in a nutshell.

The Pilgrims found this out the hard way during their first couple of years in North America.

POSTED ON October 21, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The inflation that we were emphatically told would be transitory and unmoored continues to persist and entrench. As the troubles gather momentum Washington is doing its best to ignore the problem or actively make it worse.

POSTED ON October 13, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Government policies – from shutdowns, to stimulus, to vaccine mandates – in response to the coronavirus pandemic have thrown the US economy completely out of whack. Looking at employment reveals just how messed up the economy has become.

The number of Americans quitting their jobs surged to a record high in August. According to the Labor Department Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, job quits increased by 242,000 in August, pushing the total to a record 4.3 million. The quits rate surged to an all-time high of 2.9% in August from 2.7% in July.

POSTED ON September 23, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Peter Schiff says gold will explode and the dollar will implode when the markets figure out the Fed is crying wolf when it comes to monetary tightening.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up another meeting without making any changes to its current extraordinary, loose, inflationary monetary policy. But the central bank did hint that it may start tapering its quantitative easing program “soon.”

POSTED ON September 21, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

A Reuters article by Stefano Rebaudo argued that the Federal Reserve might welcome a “bond market tantrum” that pushes bond yields higher. But does the Fed really want higher interest rates? And what would that mean for the economy?

Despite the post-pandemic economic improvement and wide expectations that the Fed will begin tapering quantitative easing in the near future, bond yields have remained stubbornly low. Ten-year Treasury yields remain stuck just above 1.3%.

POSTED ON August 30, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The “transitory” inflation swamping the country has stubbornly persisted into July.  Producer prices posted a second straight 1% month-over-month increase, which brought the full-year number to a record 7.8%. Twelve-month US export prices rose 17.2%, and nearly 22% if the rate of the first seven months of 2021 were annualized. (I find it telling that those prices – which are subject to no after-the-fact data collection adjustments – are rising at a rate that is nearly triple the CPI).

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