Peter's Blog

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole podium on Friday to draw a bright line around the central bank’s credibility, declaring that the long-promised 2 percent inflation goal on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is “a firm, fixed target.” Price stability, he said, “is not self-executing…it’s the Fed’s job to deliver stable […]

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 points to 89.4 in August, down from 90.2 in July, based on a survey conducted between August 3rd and August 16th. The decline marks the second consecutive monthly drop, though the headline figure masks a sharper divergence beneath the surface. While consumers grew somewhat more upbeat about […]

Personal income climbed by $115.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, in July 2026, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income, which is income after taxes, rose by an even larger 0.5 percent. Yet consumer spending told a different story, inching up just 0.2 percent in nominal terms and less […]

Tracing the distribution of risk is an important method that is helpful for understanding the trade-offs of any government action. Almost every government action reduces risk for some group and repackages the risk and forces another group to bear it. The government often serves as a hedge against risk, but it is important to understand […]

Although patent law is supported by many different factions as necessary to incentivize innovation, they are actually slowing down the rate of American innovation and damaging our competitiveness with China. It is right for companies to profit from the ideas that they came up with, but the cost of government-created monopoly makes our current patent […]

Even as inflation continues to run well above the central bank’s stated 2% target, the Fed’s latest decision was to hold interest rates steady. The meeting’s minutes were released on Wednesday, August 19th, offering a glimpse into the Fed governors’ perspectives on the economy and their role in it. Three regional Fed presidents, Beth Hammack, […]

The unique dangers of artificial intelligence are often used to argue that development should be taken out of the hands of profit-driven private actors. The government is presented as a force for good that can develop AI responsibly for the common good. While this line of reasoning can soothe the minds of well-meaning citizens, it […]

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year over year in July 2026, accelerating from June’s 2.8% increase and raising questions about official assessments that inflation has been successfully contained. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.5% before seasonal adjustment, or 0.3% after adjustment, with prices continuing to rise despite years of supposed monetary tightening. […]

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin told a business audience in Greenville, South Carolina, this week that the United States has averaged 2.5 percent real GDP growth since 2023 despite the pandemic, supply-chain shortages, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, tariffs, and higher interest rates. He credited stout consumption, still nearly 70 percent […]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday that its Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand was unchanged in July, a reading that stands in contrast with the 4.7 percent increase recorded over the past 12 months. Consumer prices showed a similar pattern: the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent for the month but […]