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Original Analysis

POSTED ON November 2, 2017  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

When the Fed launched its aggressive monetary policy in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, many free-market economists predicted it would result in massive price inflation. That never materialized. As a result, Keynesian economists like Paul Krugman love to finger-point and mock those who criticize easy money policies designed to “stimulate aggregate demand.” They claim the lack of price inflation proves they were right all along. You can massively increase the money supply during a downturn to stimulate the economy without sparking inflation. Free-market people are wrong.

But just because we don’t see price inflation doesn’t mean there isn’t any inflation at all. After all, the new money has to go someplace. If we don’t see it manifested in rising prices, it’s because we’re looking in the wrong place.

POSTED ON October 4, 2017  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Recently, Jamie Diamond of Citibank made headlines by labeling Bitcoin a fraud. Whether those comments played any part in Bitcoin’s recent sell off is hard to say, but the true believers reacted with predictable outrage given that the comments came from the ultimate Wall Street insider whose financial supremacy is supposedly threatened by crypto currencies like Bitcoin.

Although my critical comments on Bitcoin over the years have not received nearly as much attention, they have been just as summarily dismissed by the crypto currency crowd. But I am a well know libertarian and follower of the Austrian School of economics. I am not a member of the banking establishment, nor am I a fan of fiat money. I should be one of the good guys. But since I happen to own a company that sells gold, a metal that supposedly Bitcoin will soon make obsolete, the crypto crowd looks at me like a stubborn old buggy whip salesmen who refuses to acknowledge that the future resides in horseless transportation.

Well Bitcoin is not the automobile and gold is not a buggy whip. While Diamond’s comments were not 100% on the money, he is right about Bitcoin’s ultimate demise, just wrong about how it will meet its fate and why. While most fear that government will simply look to make Bitcoin illegal (which could be a possibility if Bitcoin could actually deliver on its promises), it is much more likely to die of natural causes.

POSTED ON October 2, 2017  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Earlier this month, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin threatened China, saying the US would “put additional sanctions on them and prevent them from accessing the US and international dollar system” if they don’t go along with the most recent round of sanctions slapped on North Korea. We argued that the threat may be meaningful, but it also might be empty.

In a recent article published on the Mises Wire, Ryan McMaken added another layer of analysis, arguing that if the US were to follow through on the threat, it would imperil the US dollar. McMaken’s reasoning dovetails with a point we’ve made more generally about Trump’s penchant for tariffs – that they will undermine the dollar. Of course, that’s good for gold.

POSTED ON August 11, 2017  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Have you ever wondered where the idea of celebrating 50 years of marriage as a “golden anniversary” came from?

A lot of wives out there might think of it as a reward for putting up with their husbands for that long.

The funny thing is, there’s a lot of truth in that idea Basically, from what I gather from this marriage history expert, it seems to have evolved as a bribe to keep people married.

POSTED ON July 28, 2017  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Joel BaumanThis article was submitted by Joel Bauman, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

In this article focuses on the gold market through the lens of technical analysis. Technical analysis is a subjective form of analysis that requires a critical eye for price patterns. The goal is to use past price data to help forecast future price movement. While the focus is on gold, these observations may be extended to the silver market given their positive correlation.

POSTED ON May 25, 2017  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

For the past decade, Mike Pung has scoured the Oklahoma hills and rivers in search of gold.

From what he told Tulsa’s Channel 8, it hasn’t exactly proven to be a fruitful venture.

You know, I’ve been in this for 10 years now, and I have never found a nugget, ever.”

But for Pung and other members of  of the Gold Prospectors of Oklahoma City, gold hunting is a labor of love. They spend hours panning in Oklahoma rivers and sifting piles of dirt in hope of finding even the tiniest flakes of gold. After all that work, you may need a magnifying glass to examine the haul. Nevertheless, Gary Whited said the thrill of the find is hard to even explain. He said even a speck can make you feel like you made your way into Fort Knox.

POSTED ON May 22, 2017  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Joel BaumanThis article was submitted by Joel Bauman, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

In my previous article, Being a Good Financial Steward: A Lesson from the Parable of Talents, I encouraged readers to follow the example of the good servants by finding a return on their precious metals. The good servants traded their talents (literally weights in gold and silver) in order to gain more talents.

And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two.” Matthew 25:15-17

While it’s not clear what activities were in involved in the trading of these talents, we are confident that the good servants were productive. (Matthew 25:20) Comparing this with the bad servant who simply dug his talent in the ground out of fear readers are given clear examples of both productive and unproductive financial stewardship.

POSTED ON May 17, 2017  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

dan_kurzDan Kurz is a CFA with over two decades experience working in Zurich, Switzerland as a thematic strategist for Credit Suisse CIO Office. Dan’s site, DK Analytics, offers deep and broad analysis at the macro and micro level.

 

Economic growth came in at a tepid 0.7% in the first quarter of 2017. Nevertheless, officials at the Federal Reserve continue to insist the economy is strong. They held interest rates steady in April, but insisted hikes were still on the table. In fact, the Atlanta Fed forecast Q2 growth to come in at over 4%. 

Peter Schiff called the Atlanta Fed’s prediction “crazy,” nothing that they are starting out with a much higher estimate for Q2 than they had in Q1, despite having all of this information about how weak the economy was in Q1 that they didn’t have a few months ago. 

And that’s the crux of the matter. The actual economic data doesn’t support the economic optimism, nor the Fed’s monetary policy. In this in-depth analysis of the current economic and policy climate, Dan Kruz makes a strong case against the policymakers’ optimism.

POSTED ON May 2, 2017  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Economic bubbles are an important concept for any investor to grasp because they result in drastic price corrections of a commodity, security, bond, etc. Recent examples include the Dot-Com bubble of the 1990’s or the Housing Bubble of 2008, which kicked off the Great Recession. But what are economic bubbles and why do they form in the first place? Understanding how to spot them is the key strategy for any successful investor who wants to know when to sell an asset or short a stock.

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