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Original Analysis

POSTED ON September 4, 2020  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Can you believe it’s already Labor Day weekend?

In some ways, 2020’s stay has dragged on seemingly forever — like an unwanted aunt visiting “for a while.” But in other ways, 2020 has just flown by. I mean, it’s already fall — although I live in north Florida so it feels like anything but fall.

POSTED ON August 18, 2020  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

What is inflation?

When analysts, politicians and pundits talk about inflation, they usually mean rising consumer prices as measured by the consumer price index (CPI). Peter Schiff and Jim Rickards debated this on Kitko news. Rickards also used this definition, insisting there is no inflation right now. Peter said, “Of course there is. The Fed is inflating like crazy.”

The ensuing debate led Peter to address the issue of inflation on his podcast. Peter called the modern mainstream definition of inflation a “false” definition.

POSTED ON August 12, 2020  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Gold and silver had an abysmal day on Tuesday (Aug. 11). The price of gold dropped more than 5%, falling far below the $2,000 level. It was the worst single-day rout in seven years. Things stabilized somewhat on Wednesday with apparent support above $1,900, but the big selloff fueled speculation that the gold bull run could be over.

Here are three questions you should ask yourself before declaring the gold bull dead.

POSTED ON August 12, 2020  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Gold and silver sold off when Russia announced that it had an effective vaccine for coronavirus. This plays into the myth that a cure for COVID-19 will cure the economy. But there is plenty of evidence suggesting the damage to the economy is deep and will likely have long-lasting impacts even when the pandemic is in the rearview mirror.

We’ve reported on a number of these signs.  Permanent business closures are rising. Americans owe billions in back rent. There is an increasing number of mortgage delinquencies. There is a rising number of over-leveraged zombie companies. And a tsunami of defaults and bankruptcies are on the horizon.

In fact, bankruptcies are already on track for a 10-year high.

POSTED ON July 2, 2020  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Gold just had its best quarter since 2016 and finished at its highest level in over eight years. But Q2 2020 wasn’t an anomaly. Gold has charted gains for seven consecutive quarters.

That represents the longest quarterly run of gains for the yellow metal since the 2008 financial crisis.

POSTED ON July 1, 2020  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Gold just wrapped up a strong quarter, up 13%, and finishing at the highest price level in over eight years. On the year, gold is up about 16% and many mainstream analysts are starting to eyeball record gold prices in the coming months. But there has been some drag on the gold market, particularly sluggish consumer demand in the East – particularly in India.

That could be changing.

POSTED ON May 26, 2020  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

For years, I have been warning that during the age of permanent stimulus (which began in earnest with the Federal Reserve’s reaction to the dotcom crash of 2000), each successive economic contraction would have to be met with ever larger, increasingly ineffective, doses of monetary and fiscal stimulus to keep the economy from spiraling into depression. I have also said that the enormity of the asset price gains over the last 10 years had increased the danger because reflating the bloated stock, real estate, and public and private debt markets would bring on doses of stimulus that could prove lethal for the economy. But even though I expected that the next financial crisis would be catastrophic, I thought that it would come into the world in the usual way, as a credit crisis triggered by over-leverage. But the Coronavirus ripped up those stage notes, and instead ushered in a threat that is faster and deeper than I imagined, and I imagined a lot. It’s a perfect storm, a black swan with teeth.

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