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Original Analysis

November 11, 2026 ・Original Analysis

What Does Democracy Need?

What does democracy need to persist? Democracy often lays the groundwork for its own destruction. While democracy itself is merely a neutral form of governance, it has a set of perverse incentives that lead it into destruction if those incentives are not carefully guarded against. Democracy, since the time of the Athenians has created a […]

November 6, 2026 ・Original Analysis

Constrained Resources Are A Good Thing

Resource constraints are often treated as though they are the root of all evil. If only we could somehow escape them, we would be able to live much more fulfilling lives. People would no longer starve, everyone could have a big beautiful house, and everywhere would be safe. While all of these things would be […]

November 3, 2026 ・Original Analysis

St. Louis Fed Chief Warns More Rate Hikes “Necessary, and Soon”

Alberto Musalem, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, told the Shadow Open Market Committee in New York on October 30th that inflation remains “too high” and that further monetary tightening will likely be needed in the near term. Citing September PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data showing both headline and core […]

October 31, 2026 ・Original Analysis

Inflation v. Desk Jobs

Inflation has taken the shine out of every form of investment other than physical assets and entrepreneurship. The dramatic increases in the cost of housing, living, and relatively slow increase of standard wages have created a liquidity-constrained situation for retail investors, and also made the stores of that liquidity continually less appealing. When adjusting for […]

October 29, 2026 ・Original Analysis

The 20$ Double Eagle

When a $20 Gold Coin Became Worth Thousands of Dollars Imagine finding a $20 coin in your grandfather’s collection. Not a twenty-dollar bill. An actual gold coin, stamped with the words “Twenty Dollars” and issued by the United States government. You might assume it’s worth a little more than $20 because it’s old. That would […]

October 29, 2026 ・Original Analysis

Black Gold, A Persistent Problem For the Fed

Oil above $100 is creating a new inflation problem for the Fed Oil has earned its reputation as black gold, but unlike the precious metal, this liquid gold is consumed. It fuels the trucks delivering groceries. It fuels tractors harvesting crops. It moves people around the world. But when its price rises, the effects don’t […]

October 28, 2026 ・Original Analysis

Inflation Is Up 3.7%. Unless You’re the One Paying for It.

Inflation rose to 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August and above economists’ expectations. Gasoline prices are up more than 34% over the past year, while shelter costs have risen just 3.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While that’s a big difference, there’s another difference not getting enough attention: the inflation rate […]

October 28, 2026 ・Original Analysis

Gold Prices Go Up. Rolex Prices Follow. So Why Don’t They Come Back Down?

If you walked into a Rolex dealer in 2024 and tried on a white-gold Daytona, you’d have been looking at a watch that cost considerably less than it does today. The same watch now retails for roughly $59,100, about 33% more than it did two years ago. In June alone, Rolex raised prices on its […]

October 28, 2026 ・Original Analysis

The Penny Costs 3.69 Cents to Make.

Imagine running a business where every time you sell a product for one cent, you spend four cents manufacturing. You’d probably reconsider your operating model quickly. The United States government took many years to reconsider a similar situation.  For years, the U.S. Mint produced pennies that cost more to manufacture and distribute than their face […]

October 28, 2026 ・Original Analysis

Toilet Paper, Chicken, and Bullion

Costco will sell you just about anything: a 48-pack of toilet paper, a five-pound bag of shredded cheese, a $1.50 hot dog.  And, apparently, a bar of gold. The same warehouse club that built its reputation on selling everyday necessities in bulk has become a serious player in the precious metals business. In 2024, Wells […]

October 26, 2026 ・Original Analysis

Lock It Up!

You Bought Gold. Now Where Are You Supposed to Put It? You’ve done your research, compared premiums, and finally bought your first ounce of gold. Now what? Put it in a sock drawer? Buy a safe? Rent a bank safe-deposit box? Buying gold is relatively straightforward. Figuring out where to keep it is where things […]