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Original Analysis

POSTED ON July 15, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stuck to his “transitory” inflation narrative during testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. That’s his story and he’s sticking to it!

POSTED ON July 2, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

I haven’t heard; are we allowed to celebrate the Fourth of July or nah?

You may recall that after Joe Biden was elected, he said if we were good little citizens and wore our masks, we might be able to celebrate with our friends and families on the Fourth of July. But I never have heard if the president gave us our permission slip or not.

By the way — this doesn’t seem to keep with the spirit of the holiday as I remember it.

POSTED ON July 2, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Will the Federal Reserve tighten monetary policy to fight inflation? Or will it keep its loose monetary policy in place to support the fake recovery? The central bank has a profound influence on the economy, for better or for worse. But should the Federal Reserve even exist? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey argues that it shouldn’t – not if you follow the original meaning of the Constitution. He makes his case with an interesting history lesson on the creation of the First Bank of the United States.

POSTED ON July 1, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Markets reacted strongly to what many considered “hawkish” messaging coming out of the June Federal Reserve meeting. But is the Fed really taking a “hawkish” position?

Peter Schiff said the Fed was engaging in a “no stick” monetary policy. And in his Friday Gold Wrap podcast, Mike Maharrey argued the Fed was a dove in hawks clothing, arguing we should look at the Fed’s actions, not the messaging.

POSTED ON June 29, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The markets have obsessed over what the Fed is saying while almost completely ignoring what it’s actually doing.

After the June FOMC meeting, markets reacted to the hint that the Fed might start raising interest rates in 2023 instead of 2024. But of course, it didn’t move rates up from zero. And while the Fed apparently talked about talking about tapering its quantitative easing bond-buying program, it continues to expand its balance sheet at a torrid pace.

POSTED ON June 16, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The federal government has already run a $2.06 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2021 with four months left to go. But somewhat surprisingly, over the last few months, the national debt hasn’t increased at nearly the pace you would expect considering the budget shortfalls. Given the level of spending, borrowing should be much higher. How has the federal government maintained its spending pace without borrowing at a much higher rate?

The US Treasury has been drawing down the balance in its Treasury General Account (TGA) at the Federal Reserve. But that maneuver is about to come to an end, so you can expect Treasury bond sales to spike in the coming months.

POSTED ON June 13, 2021  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The Federal Reserve is the engine that drives one of the biggest, most powerful governments in the history of the world.

Without the Fed, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for the government to fund its foreign wars, its massive, unsustainable social programs, the ever-growing police state, and the tangled web of corporate welfare programs. It’s almost certain none of this would exist as we know it today – not even close. The federal government would truly be limited.

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