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Original Analysis

POSTED ON June 7, 2016  - POSTED IN Original Analysis, Videos

With May’s shockingly bad jobs report, it’s pretty much a forgone conclusion that a June Federal Reserve rate hike is off the table. After the report came out Friday, Peter Schiff stuck a fork in the June hike possibilities in his SchiffReport Video Blog.

Now with the June rate almost certainly a no-go, pundits are starting to look ahead to later in the summer or this fall. But Peter, along with some like-minded people such as Jim Grant, believes the Fed won’t raise rates at all. It simply can’t. In fact, Peter argues that the next move will be rate cuts and another round of quantitative easing:

This is just the beginning. When people actually figure out the box that we’re in – because they still think the Fed is going to raise rates. Now they’re saying ‘OK, maybe they’ll raise rates in July, or maybe they’ll raise rates in December.’ Wait until the conversation turns to rate cuts. Wait until the conversation turns to QE4, or negative interest rates. Wait until people think that I was right from day one, that the Fed checked us into a monetary roach motel, that there is no way out of this monetary policy.”

POSTED ON June 6, 2016  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

This article was submitted by JD Bauman, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

Last Friday, the BLS released its jobs report for the month of May.

It was shockingly bad.

In light of the strike on Verizon, a relatively weak report of 170,000 jobs was expected; however, the report delivered far below expectations with just 38,000 jobs created. The new data, detailing the worst jobs numbers in nearly six years, is also accompanied with downward revisions of earlier numbers. The BLS revisions of employment figures for March and April puts the economy with 59,000 less jobs than previously reported.

The labor force participation rate also decreased as 660,000 more workers left the labor force. The current participation rate of 62.6% is nearly the lowest the US has seen in the last four decades.

labor force participation

POSTED ON June 6, 2016  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

company-addison-qualeThis article was submitted by Addison Quale, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

Peter Schiff has stated clearly for the record that this financial system is headed towards collapse. While many like to point at inflation as the key indicator to pay attention to, we have been offering another: interest rates.

Indeed, the pathologically falling interest rates taking place across the world are more of a signal that this system is headed for collapse than inflation, which we also believe will have its day. In other words, the mainstream economic commentators who keep telling us to get ready for rising rates are dead wrong.

int rates

This recent article provides a detailed explanation as to exactly why this is happening.

POSTED ON June 3, 2016  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

company-dickson-buchananThis article was written by Dickson Buchanan, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

Many Americans are concerned about their privacy today. And rightly so. The NSA and governmental authorities maintain their policies are ultimately for the safety and security of the American people. We will leave that debate in the capable hands of others, but where is this same concern when it comes to money? Have central governments given us a safe, secure, and stable money in the dollar system lead by the Federal Reserve? In this article we will compare the dollar to gold and even throw in the most popular cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) to spice things up a bit.

First, let’s define what we mean by security.

POSTED ON May 27, 2016  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

company-dickson-buchananThis article was written by Dickson Buchanan Jr., SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

Whether intuitively or analytically, we all know that the dollar is not such a great form of money. That’s putting it lightly though. The dollar is a terrible form of money when you take a closer look. Those who have lived longer on this earth tend to grasp this reality more clearly. Like trying to walk up a downward-moving escalator, the momentum of a falling dollar is always against you. This becomes clearer when engaging in economic planning. Whether it’s starting a business, making an investment, saving for retirement, putting something away for a rainy day, or simply making ends meet on a week to week basis, all of us have to work against a falling dollar (or fill in the blank with your fiat currency of choice.)

If that’s true, why do we keep using it?

POSTED ON May 23, 2016  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

This article was submitted by JD Bauman, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

One of the common questions we hear from gold buyers is, “Is it possible that the government might come after my gold and confiscate it?”

In a time when the governments are waging a war on cash, it’s not hard for people to imagine that a war on gold is next.

There is some precedence for this, after all. On April 5, 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Executive Order 6102 “[forbade] the Hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States.” Americans who owned gold were told to deliver their gold to the bank and in exchange receive paper dollars of equivalent value, $20.67 per ounce at the time.

PF-gold-confiscati_2525827b

To be very clear though, contrary to common belief, the government did not conduct a widespread seizure of gold, nor did it go door-to-door nor systematically raid safety deposit boxes. While a $10,000 fine and ten year prison sentence threatened the masses into obedience, only a handful of sting operations were conducted against a few offenders to serve as an example.

POSTED ON May 17, 2016  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

company-addison-qualeThis article was submitted by Addison Quale, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

Despite some good numbers in April, a look at the fundamentals indicates the rout in retail will likely continue long-term.

Mainstream media wants us to think that our economy is still humming along. With the stock market recovering from a recent drop, unemployment numbers staying steady, and other areas of the globe dealing with much greater issues than the US, most people can be forgiven for nodding their heads in agreement.

But there are clearly serious issues plaguing the economic health of this nation. Take for instance the area of retail.

The retail sector has suffered mightily, as this so-called recovery, the weakest on record, has not delivered as advertised. Consumers are clearly in no mood to spend these days. Instead, they are tightening their belts and paying off credit cards.

POSTED ON May 16, 2016  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Joel BaumanThis article was submitted by Joel Bauman, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

In my latest post titled Inflation: A Semantic Change Worth Noting, I briefly reviewed the changing connotation of the terms ‘inflation’ and ‘deflation.’

In this final post in my 2-part series on inflation and banking, I look at the inflation process who whom it benefits.

The inflationary process is facilitated by two means: expanding the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and through credit expansion via fractional reserve banking.

bank

As the Fed buys assets, it creates the money to purchase them out of nothing but a promise. This is what most TV pundits refer to as “printing money.” The larger the Fed’s balance sheet grows, the more money must be created in order to finance these purchases.

POSTED ON May 13, 2016  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

This article was submitted by Fabian Gambino, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

Are Wall Street banks finally getting on the right side of the gold trade?

In an interview with CNBC, Solita Marcelli, global head of fixed income at JP Morgan, revealed that the Wall Street investment bank is recommending that clients position themselves for a “new and very long” bull market in gold.

morgan

She explained that negative interest rates around the world are making gold a more attractive investment. Since gold is a non-yielding asset and has minimal storage costs, it actually compares quite favorably with the increasing number of negative yield bonds on the global stage. It has a positive carry.

POSTED ON May 12, 2016  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Joel BaumanThis article was submitted by Joel Bauman, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

In light of the economic malaise around the United Kingdom, the Bank of England may be releasing additional monetary stimulus in the near future. They will do this in response to increased unemployment rates and lack of private investing.

bank england

But the BoE is waiting on a June 23 referendum in which Britain and will decide whether or not to leave the European Union before taking action. The BoE is worried about the possible negative economic consequences this decision will have on its economy. Businesses have already been putting investments on hold until after the vote is has been decided. Mark Carney, the governor of the bank of England and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), said the pending vote on what has become known as Brexit is weighing on growth and clouding the economic outlook.

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