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POSTED ON May 4, 2024  - POSTED IN Guest Commentaries

In April, the U.S. economy added a disappointing 175,000 jobs, falling short of expectations and nudging unemployment up to 3.9% (see current trends here). This signals a slowing economy that might force the Federal Reserve to put the guard rails back on. Our guest commentator gives a deeper look at a worrisome trajectory: while part-time jobs are on the rise, full-time employment has plummeted, hinting at a coming recession.

POSTED ON May 3, 2024  - POSTED IN Friday Gold Wrap

Joel and JD unravel the shocking economic turmoil of the week, spotlighting the catastrophic collapse of Republic First Bank, alarming jobs data, and Powell’s foreboding speech. With the Fed confessing anxiety about inflation and pulling rate cuts off the path, it’s now clear: we’re in dangerous territory with no guard rails in sight!

POSTED ON May 3, 2024  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Cocoa prices have dumped since rocketing to a dramatic peak last month as an El Nino cycle winds down and traders rush out of the illiquid market. For now, depreciating fiat currencies are still keeping the cocoa price still far above its 2023 levels. Coffee has had a similar rise and subsequent correction — but now, inflation and other factors are conspiring to brew a pot of strong fuel for more upward price action in markets for the world’s other favorite bean.

POSTED ON May 2, 2024  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

California’s government bet that they knew better than the free market. And now millions are paying the price.

The story begins in 1919, when the city of Berkley, California instituted legislation setting aside districts that would only allow the construction of single-family housing. The idea spread, and soon much of California’s urban areas had adopted the zoning policy. Today, approximately 40% of the total land in Los Angeles is set aside for single-family homes, while only 11% is reserved for multi-family residences. 

POSTED ON May 1, 2024  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The yen was once known as a safe-haven currency for investors to protect themselves when broader markets are shaky or other currencies are dropping, but those days are numbered. A stable government and consistent (and low) interest rates have been some of the driving factors, but it’s the unwinding of that ultra-low interest rate policy that will be the yen’s “safe haven” undoing as gold retains its protective characteristics and rockets upward.

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