Peter's Blog

The Crisis of Ownership

In 1775 roughly 80% of Americans owned their own businesses. Most of these were farmers, and their responsibility to the nation became deeply intertwined with their own livelihoods as they owned a bit of earth and let their love of self turn into love of country. They planted the seeds of survival and reaped the […]

The Technicals: The Next Move Looks Bullish but it Needs to Come Sooner Rather than Later

Technical Analysis of Gold and Silver This analysis attempts to look at different metrics to understand the current momentum in the gold and silver markets. It is meant as an analysis on potential price direction in the very short-term (a few weeks to 1-2 months). In Q1, the analysis highlighted the break of support in […]

Philadelphia Fed’s Paulson Admits Sixth Straight Miss on Inflation Target

Anna Paulson, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, delivered opening remarks at the 10th Annual Fintech Conference in Philadelphia on September 24th, noting explicitly that her views are her own, “not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).” Paulson said she supported the FOMC’s […]

Peter Schiff: Politics is Trumping Sound Policy

In this episode, Peter works through the latest news cycle, each part of which points to government malfeasance and political expedience overriding sound principles. He covers the latest Federal Reserve vote, the ballooning cost of servicing the national debt, inflation’s squeeze on ordinary consumers, the misuse of the strategic petroleum reserve, a troubling crackdown on […]

Price Inflation Has Been above the Two-Percent Target for 65 Months in a Row

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, has now come in above its 2 percent target for 65 consecutive months, with core PCE running at 3.3 percent year over year in July and CPI up 3.4 percent through August. The dollar has lost 28 percent of its purchasing power since January 2020, and with wages falling […]

Why the Economy Is Splitting in Two

Commentators have labeled the divide between soaring asset prices and stagnant wages the “K-shaped economy,” but slapping a name on the pattern is not the same as explaining it. The real driver is the Cantillon effect: new money enters the economy through the banking system first, inflating the assets held disproportionately by the wealthy while […]

Richmond Fed’s Barkin Concedes Five Years of Inflation Failure

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin delivered a speech titled “Why Hike?” to the CFA Society Baltimore on September 22nd, discussing the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) recent rate hike of 25 basis points. The move marked the Fed’s first rate increase since mid-2023 and its first policy action of any kind since […]

Money Supply Growth Continues at an Elevated Pace Despite Fed’s tough Talk

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

Deregulation Is the Only Hope For Big Government

Although deregulation is not often supported by those who support big government, it is actually the most realistic path forward for those who support an expensive state. Decades of deficits and poor management have led to a massive national debt and ever-growing interest payments. The interest payment is now similar to traditionally large expenses like […]

Chicago Fed President Says Some Inflation Shocks Can No Longer Be Ignored

Austan Goolsbee, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, delivered remarks on September 21st at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London that challenged one of the central tenets of modern monetary policy. Goolsbee argued that the post-1970s doctrine of “looking through” supply-driven price shocks needs revision, stating plainly that […]