The Fed has talked a big game lately. Many people (including me) assumed the Fed would fold a long time ago. There is a very good reason — the Fed will crush the economy and the US Treasury with higher interest rates.
In reality, the Fed is holding a losing hand and trying to bluff its way to victory.
Last week the Fed raised interest rates another 75 basis points and continued to insist it was fully committed to doing whatever it takes to bring inflation back down to 2%. In his podcast, Peter argued that Powell still thinks he can pull off the impossible.
He can’t.
Even as the August inflation data was coming out higher than expected, President Joe Biden was bragging about his “Inflation Reduction Act.” Peter Schiff appeared on NewsMax and argued that the president is putting Americans at risk just so he can improve his image as we approach election time.
The price analysis last month titled Caution Warranted in the Short Term, highlighted the potential risk in gold and silver after a rough July and early August. It concluded the path was much less clear. There were two possible paths forward: Gold could be range bound again between $1750-$1800, or, a hawkish Fed at the Jackson Hole summit could potentially crack $1750 and open up the door for new lows. As it turns out, it was the latter. The gold miners are definitely anticipating this.
The September Federal Reserve meeting wrapped up this week with another 75 basis point rate hike. And Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted that there is going to be some pain as the central bank continues to fight inflation. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey reacts to the meeting and the Fed’s messaging. He said he thinks Powell & Co. are drastically understanding the coming pain.
The dollar index is at 20-year highs. This has led to talk of the dollar getting “too strong,” even as some worry that a “post-dollar” world could be on the horizon.
What explains this dichotomy?
In a nutshell, it’s not so much that the dollar is “strong.” It’s just the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket.
September gold has been a very strong delivery month with 8,573 contracts being delivered plus an additional 718 in open interest that will be delivered over the next week (9,219 total). It is currently still below the July month but could exceed the total by the time the month completes due to mid-month activity.
During his post- FOMC meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, “Hope for the best; plan for the worst.”
I think he meant, “Live in hope; die in despair.”
The Atlanta Fed has lowered its GDP estimate for the third quarter to 0.3%, and the trend is downward. That means the economy is teetering on the verge of another quarter of negative GDP growth. Would that be enough to raise recession alarms?
Federal Reserve rate hikes will add trillions to the national debt, according to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
