We have been saying that given the extraordinary level of money printing the Fed has done since the beginning of the pandemic, a wave of price inflation is coming down the pike – perhaps even hyperinflation. But many will be quick to remind us that we raised the warning flag about inflation when the Fed launched three rounds of quantitative easing in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. In fact, Paul Krugman has been doing victory laps again – reminding everybody that the inflation monster never did come out of its lair and promising it won’t this time either.
Basic economics tells us that increasing the supply of money without a corresponding increase in the number of goods and services in the economy should lead to rising prices. Is basic economics wrong? Or are there other things going on in the economy that suppressed or hid inflation in the aftermath of the great recession?
Since the beginning of the pandemic, government debt and money printing are off the chart. This is creating inflationary pressure. Prices are on the rise. And this is by design. In fact, the Fed has been promising more inflation for years. As Peter Schiff explains, it looks like this is one promise the Fed is going to keep.
Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen testified jointly before the US Senate last week. Inflation was a big topic of conversation. The Fed chair continued to insist that the central bank can fight inflation if necessary, but that it really isn’t a problem we need to worry about right now. In his podcast, Peter Schiff said the truth is inflation is a problem. And when it comes to dealing with that problem, the Fed is in a box. It will never pick a fight that it can’t win.
I have to admit, I have some level of respect for gold smugglers. They are some creative people. And gutsy. And willing to endure a little pain. Not to mention the fact that a lot of them are just trying to avoid taxes. I can understand this desire.
Every time the economy gets into trouble, governments and central banks react the same way. They slash interest rates and loosen monetary policy. This gooses the economy — temporarily. But when the next crisis comes, it takes an even bigger dose of extraordinary monetary policy to revive the economy. The Fed has pushed things into the future several times, but as Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey explains, at some point you’ve got to pay the piper. In this episode, he also discusses the bond market and the latest Fed talk.
The bounceback in the Indian gold market continued last month.
Indian gold imports hit a 21-month high in February and there was robust retail demand.
This comes on the heels of a 72% year-on-year increase in gold imports in January.
Despite the “improving economy,” subprime mortgage delinquencies remain at record high levels. And the full extent of the problem is masked by forbearance programs.
The delinquency rate on FHA mortgages spiked to 17.5% in February. That was up from 17.0% in January and equals the all-time record set in September and November of 2020, according to AEI’s Housing Center.
Every time the economy gets into trouble, governments and central banks react the same way – they cut interest rates and loosen monetary policy to stimulate borrowing and spending. The idea is that the “stimulus” will increase demand and pull the economy out of trouble. But there is a dark side to this policy – debt. And debt is slowly poisoning the economy.
The latest Biden/Democrat stimulus bill is just the beginning. There is more government spending coming down the pike. That means more money printing. But Paul Krugman says not to worry. It didn’t cause a big jump in CPI last time and it won’t this time either. Peter Schiff talked about it in his podcast. He said when Krugman talks – nobody should listen.