Stocks took off on Friday on several big news items – most significantly President Trump’s announcement that the US and China have worked out phase one of a trade deal. In his podcast, Peter broke down the news. He also made an interesting observation: Trump and the Federal Reserve seem to be reading off the same script.
I’ve got an idea. It’s not really original, but I think it’s fantastic and worth considering here as we get close to the Fourth of July holiday. How about if we build a big cage in Washington D.C. and let the politicians just fight it out MMA-style?
I mean, that’s pretty much the level most of these people operate on anyway. They are all just blustering around with their chests all puffed out. The problem is, they always end up dragging us into their beefs.
The “Powell Pause” is not enough. President Donald Trump not only wants interest rates cuts; he wants to put quantitative easing back in play.
During an interview Friday, the president once again complained about the Fed’s 2018 interest rate increases, saying “they really slowed us down.” Trump wants stimulus and called on the Fed to resume Obama era QE.
The second quarter GDP number released Friday came in at 4.1%. It represents the fastest rate of growth since 2014. President Trump called the number “amazing,” bragging that, “We’ve accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions.”
Peter Schiff wasn’t quite as impressed. In his latest podcast, he said this “peak GDP” is an aberration and it’s setting the stage for a major economic fail.
Peter Schiff talked politics in his latest podcast and raised a sobering question: Could the US be on the path toward a socialist administration?
Peter noted that we are long overdue for a recession. There are plenty of signs a major economic downturn could be lurking right around the corner, including stock market weakness. And as we reported today, US Treasury yield curves are flattening. The average global yield curve has inverted. Inverting yield curves are a strong predictor of recession.
This is bad news for President Trump, who has taken credit for the “great” economy and strong stock market. Peter said the president has set himself up as the fall-guy when the crash happens. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is drifting further left.
Jobs numbers came out Friday better than expected.
According to the Labor Department, the US economy added 313,000 jobs last month, the most since October 2015. Economists had anticipated a gain of about 200,000. Wage growth was less stellar, ticking up just 0.1%. Analysts projected a 0.2% increase after a pretty significant jump of 0.3% in January spooked markets with inflation fears.
In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said if he was a conspiratorial person – and he’s not – he would say, “Wait a minute, this looks too good to be true.”
President Trump’s top economic advisor announced his resignation this week in the midst of a budding trade war.
Gary Cohn heads the National Economic Council. He was a “free trade” guy and generally opposed to high tariff policies. Most analysts think his resignation is a sign he lost the internal White House struggle over trade policy. Trump took the opportunity to promise he will replace Cohn with somebody “great.”
Cohn’s resignation gave Peter Schiff a different idea. Maybe we should just fire all of these government economists.
Just over a week ago, President Trump delivered the State of the Union speech. The president gave a speech with a decidedly optimistic tone. This was certainly welcome with the increasingly fractured and divided American political landscape. But it’s important to focus beyond the political theater and take a hard look at where the US economy really is and where it is heading. Unfortunately, the political rhetoric doesn’t always line up with economic reality.
Everybody seems bullish on the economy. Nobody is worried about anything, even though there is everything to be worried about. Peter Schiff said he feels like he’s in Alice in Wonderland. In his most recent podcast, he referenced a Morgan Stanley analyst interviewed by CNBC.
She’s unquestioningly bullish on every front. Everything is bullish. There is nothing at all to worry about. In fact, the only thing she said that anybody is worried about is that there’s nothing to worry about. It’s that things are so good, they’re wondering what are we missing. Maybe we should be a little bit worried because nobody is worried because everything is good. I mean, there are so many things to worry about. That is the reality. But they’re not worried about any of them.”