After losing its grip in 2020, managed money is back in the driver’s seat pushing the price of gold and silver around. This analysis is written to explain the short-term price movements, which can be confounding given the strong fundamental backdrop. After very low volatility and a disappointing year in precious metals, it’s likely activity will pick up in 2022. Tracking the positioning of managed money will provide insights into the short-term price moves.
Silver demand is expected to chart a new record high in 2021 with every key area showing an increase based on preliminary data.
This is one of several silver-related stories covered in the latest edition of Silver News published by the Silver Institute.
As reported last week, Comex January’s open interest activity was looking strong in silver and modest in gold. The initial results are promising, especially given the probability contracts will open mid-month for immediate delivery.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
While on the surface, it appears the Federal Reserve asset purchase taper has started, it’s not as easy to prove when you dig into the details.
The Fed is certainly not being as aggressive as they promised, and for good reason. As the Fed leaves the bond market, who will fill the gap? Since 2019, the Fed has quadrupled the Treasury purchases of international holders and has been one of the biggest players in the Treasury market.
We’re on the cusp of a new year. We certainly had a wild ride in 2021 with continuing coronavirus drama, inflation that turned out to be not so transitory, and a record-breaking stock market bubble. So, what was the biggest story of 2021? Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey thinks it was a story that wasn’t told – the story of real interest rates. He wraps up the year by telling that story.
Despite talk about a war on inflation and a quantitative easing taper, the money supply continues to expand at a rapid clip, fanning the inflationary fire.
M2 increased by $249.2B in November.
Silver delivery in December surged to levels not seen since last spring and reversed the downward trend in place since last summer.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
Gold looked very strong through mid-November. Trends in September and October had been pointing to a breakout. The market delivered sending gold up through $1870. Unfortunately, hard resistance kept the bulls in check, despite repeated attempts to breakthrough.
The previous price analysis presumed that a Brainard nomination at the Fed would be the catalyst needed to break through $1880. It also assumed that a Powell nomination, though expected, would bring gold back down to some extent.
Unfortunately, the gold market took the Powell news harder than expected.
Gold inventories in Comex vaults increased for only the second time since February this year.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
‘Tis the season for Christmas specials.
I’m not going to lie – even as a grown man, I love watching Christmas specials. Snoopy decorating his dog house. The Grinch folding up the Christmas tree like an umbrella and stuffing it up the chimney. And Frosty the snowman melting in the greenhouse.
