As reported last week, multiple data points in the COMEX are starting to flash yellow in the gold market. Cash settlements are at a recent high, open interest has spiked in March to way above normal, and roll costs are creeping up.
Are these tremors in the gold market?
The Treasury added almost $400 billion of debt in January, the third most since July 2020. As the month closed out, the national debt eclipsed $30 trillion.
The other two larger debt increases both came right after the debt ceiling was raised. Perhaps most important is the fact that almost $200B of the newly added debt was in short-term Bills (turquoise below).
With little fanfare, the national debt crossed the $30 trillion threshold this week. That is an unfathomable number. And as host Mike Maharrey explains in this week’s Friday Gold Wrap podcast, it’s worse than that. Most people aren’t concerned. Maharrey argues that they should be, likening the federal government’s borrow and spend policy to a monetary Jenga game.
As reported last week, Comex January turned out to be extremely strong in both gold and silver for a minor month. Most of that strength materialized after First Position. February was looking modest in gold and weak in silver, but the gold market is now showing outlier trends.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery volume on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
The Federal Reserve held its first FOMC meeting of 2022. The central bank didn’t do anything, but the tone coming out of the meeting was widely perceived as even more “hawkish.” Everybody is convinced the Fed really means it now. The inflation fight is on. Is it though? Host Mike Maharrey talks about the messaging and perceptions coming out of this meeting and calls it a big flim-flam.
Several states are considering bills to repeal the sales tax on precious metal bullion during the 2022 legislative session. Passage into law would relieve some of the tax burdens on investors, and would also take a step toward treating gold and silver as money instead of as commodities.
M2 increased by $201 billion in December.
This represents a 0.94% MoM increase which annualizes to 11.9%. For the entire year of 2021, M2 grew by an incredible $2.5 trillion or 13.1%!
This is extremely rapid money supply growth! The Fed can taper their asset purchases, but shrinking the Money Supply is the only way to rein in inflation.
For the past year, gold has been battling around the $1,800 an ounce psychological mark. Silver has faced a similar up and down battle near $25, albeit with more volatility.
Gold finished 2021 strong at $1830 but then a pullback happened followed by a quick rebound back above $1800 and now $1830. Will $1800 hold this time and provide support? Can silver break through $25 and unleash the bulls? Obviously, no one knows for sure, but taking a look at some indicators can provide some insight.
An article earlier this month reviewed the massive volume of physical metal leaving the bank House accounts over the last two years. December 2021 finished the year off with a massive drawdown in House account inventories. While the drawdown continues across most accounts, Bank of America has tried to recoup some of the physical metal that left its holdings in December. As the data below shows, this has led to an extremely strong January to kick-off 2022.
It is often said that perception is reality. Politicians spend a tremendous amount of time and energy trying to shape perceptions. So, how does the average American perceive the US economy? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about economic perceptions – both those the politicians are trying to create and those actually held by American consumers.
