The markets were looking for signs that the transitory inflation period was coming to an end. They didn’t get it when the June CPI number came in much hotter than expected. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the latest price data and said it reveals the dirty little secret – all of this talk about transitory inflation is a ruse. Even worse, despite what the markets seem to think, there’s nothing the Federal Reserve can do about it.
The mainstream narrative is that the Fed will soon admit that inflation isn’t transitory. At that point, it will raise interest rates and taper its bond-buying program to fight rising prices. But this narrative ignores the elephant in the room – the ever-increasing national debt.
In June, the US government ran another big deficit of $174.16 billion, continuing the trend of overspending and massive budget shortfalls.
For the sixth month in a row, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in much higher than expected. But the question remains: how long will the Fed keep up the “transitory” inflation narrative? And when they do abandon this storyline and acknowledge inflation, what can the central bankers really do about it?
The CPI surged 0.9% month-on-month in June. It was the biggest monthly price increase of the year, blowing away expectations of a 0.5% increase. Stop and think about that number. Prices rose nearly 1% in a single month.
Consumer prices have been rising precipitously this year. If you annualize the Consumer Price Index through the first five months of 2021, you get a CPI increase of over 6%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to push the narrative that inflation is transitory, but not everybody buys into this storyline. On the Wolf Street Report, Financial Analyst Wolf Richter said Powell’s temporary inflation is turning into an “inflation spiral.”
There has been a growing sentiment in the markets that inflation isn’t transitory and the Fed is going to eventually have to tighten monetary policy to deal with it. The International Monetary Fund fed the narrative last week when Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned of a “sustained” inflation rise in the United States. This comes after a June Federal Reserve meeting that many perceived as a turn toward hawkishness. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff said the Fed is like the boy who cried wolf when it comes to fighting inflation and the markets are bracing for the wrong impact.
Even with the CPI rising more than expected every month this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to insist that inflation is “transitory.” But not everybody is buying Powell’s narrative. In a blog post published July 7, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned of a “sustained” inflation rise in the United States.
But even if she’s right, will the Fed do anything about it?
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has conceded that we may well get more inflation than originally expected with all of this government stimulus. But she said if we do end up with higher inflation and higher interest rates, it’s a good thing. It will be good for society, and it will be good for the Federal Reserve.
Peter Schiff talked about it in this clip from a recent podcast.
Despite the addition of a better than expected 850,000 jobs in June, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.9%, The anticipation was that it would drop to 5.6%. The media spun this as a fantastic jobs report, focusing on the headline number of jobs “created.” Peter Schiff talked about it in his podcast and said it was a weaker report than the headlines would suggest. And the really bad news is unemployment and prices are rising together.
Inflation is running hot right now. The May CPI data came in hotter than expected, a trend we’ve seen every month this year. But the Federal Reserve and the mainstream financial media continue to insist inflation “transitory.” Peter Schiff recently appeared with Tucker Carlson on Fox News to talk about skyrocketing prices.
Is inflation “transitory,” the result of a quickly recovering post-pandemic economy as Jerome Powell insists? Or is it a long-term phenomenon resulting from loose monetary policy that’s not about to abate anytime soon? Peter Schiff recently participated in the “great inflation debate” on RT’s Cross Talk with Peter Lavelle, along with American Institute for Economic Research economist Pete Earle and Renaissance Capital economist Sofia Donets.
