The Fed has an inflation problem.
The CPI is running well above the mythical 2% target and there isn’t any sign that it will ease soon. To deal with this problem, the central bank should tighten its monetary policy. But that would create a whole new problem, given that it can’t tighten in this economic environment. So, what is a central banker to do?
Well, if the Fed can’t hit the target, how about just moving the target?
The Federal Reserve wrapped up another FOMC meeting with a whole lot of talk and very little action. Interest rates remain at zero and quantitative easing continues unabated. The mainstream headlines are all focusing on the prospect of QE tapering. In this episode, Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey explains why he’d write a completely different headline about this Fed meeting.
The Federal Reserve wrapped up its September FOMC meeting Wednesday and once again left its extraordinary loose “emergency” monetary policy in place. Quantitative easing continues unabated. Interest rates remain at zero. But the Fed did signal it may begin to taper quantitative easing “soon.” In his podcast, Peter Schiff broke down the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. He said he thinks when it comes to tightening monetary policy, the Fed is bluffing.
In yet another sign “transitory” inflation might not be so transitory, FedEx has announced plans to significantly hike shipping rates in 2022.
FedEx said it will raise rates for US domestic, export and import services by 5.9%, on average next year. Some freight rates will rise as much as 7.9%. The company also plans to raise its Ground Economy rates along with fuel surcharges. The rate hikes will go into effect on Jan. 3.
We got a much better than expected retail sales report for August. That sparked a selloff in gold and silver as the markets continue to anticipate Fed monetary tightening. But was this report really fantastic news? Peter Schiff breaks down the report and says it’s actually just telling us consumers are paying more to buy less.
CPI data came in slightly cooler than expected for August, giving new energy to the “transitory” inflation narrative. But can we really trust these numbers? In this episode, Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey takes a deep dive into the CPI and considers this question. He also touches on the big gold sell-off Thursday sparked by surprisingly good retail sales numbers.
For months, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has insisted that inflation is “transitory.” Instead of laying out a plan to taper quantitative easing, Powell used his Jackson Hole speech to double down on that narrative. Looking at the bigger picture, the US government has created a CPI calculation that intentionally understates rising prices.
This raises a question: why are the government and the Fed so desperate to hide price inflation?
For the first time in nine months, the government CPI data came in under expectations. Prices rose by 0.3% last month, just below the 0.4% projection. Year on year, the CPI was up 5.3%. Core inflation, stripping out more volatile food and energy (for those of you who don’t eat or use energy) was up 0.1%. Core inflation is up 4% on the year.
In his podcast, Peter Schiff took a deeper dive into the numbers and explained why this doesn’t prove inflation is “transitory.” He also drilled down to the root cause of rising prices – too much money chasing not enough stuff. Given the current monetary policy, that doesn’t appear set to change anytime soon.
Producer prices came in hot again in August, charting the biggest annual gain in nearly 11 years. This indicates “transitory” inflation isn’t going away any time soon.
The PPI for August rose 0.7% month-on-month. Economists were forecasting a 0.6% rise. This follows on the heels of two straight months with producer prices increasing 1.0%.
A lot of investors are disappointed in gold. After all, many buy gold because of inflation. Even with rapidly rising prices, the yellow metal hasn’t delivered as you might expect.
During his virtual speech for the Money Show, Peter Schiff explains exactly what is going on. He said in the end, gold will be vindicated because inflation will win in a knockout.
