The markets have obsessed over what the Fed is saying while almost completely ignoring what it’s actually doing.
After the June FOMC meeting, markets reacted to the hint that the Fed might start raising interest rates in 2023 instead of 2024. But of course, it didn’t move rates up from zero. And while the Fed apparently talked about talking about tapering its quantitative easing bond-buying program, it continues to expand its balance sheet at a torrid pace.
The S&P 500 closed last week at an all-time record high. This is quite a reversal from the previous week. In his podcast, Peter Schiff said there has been a shift in expectations. After the June FOMC meeting, investors were jittery that the Fed was going to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation. Now the thinking seems to be that there is no inflation problem. It really is just transitory. Everything is great because – well – the Fed tells us so!
The markets widely interpreted the June Federal Reserve meeting as hawkish. The central bankers pushed their projections for the first interest rate hike from 2024 back into 2023. But in reality, the Fed didn’t actually do anything. Interest rates will remain at zero and quantitative easing will continue unchanged into the foreseeable future.
The fact is the US government needs the Fed to continue its loose monetary policy to sustain its out-of-control borrowing and spending. Money is control and that’s why every government wants to control the money. Of course, this never works well for the average person. As Ron Paul put it, the road to big government authoritarianism is paved with fiat currency.
From 2016 to 2020, Republicans were constantly trying to play up the economy. You’ll recall Donald Trump claiming it was the greatest economy in history. Meanwhile, Democrats were trying to play it down. Now, the roles have reversed. Since the Democrats own the economy now, they’re talking about how great the recovery is while Republicans are sounding warnings. This political hypocrisy is letting the real culprit get away without blame.
“Officer, I need to report my wife. She lost her gold necklaces.”
That’s basically what happened in Strongsville, Ohio, recently.
Yesterday, President Joe Biden announced Republicans and Democrats have come up with a $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal. But where is Uncle Sam going to come up with the money? And what does this tell you about the likely trajectory of Federal Reserve monetary policy? Host Mike Maharrey talks about it in this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast. He also discusses the latest talk, talk, talk coming out of the Fed.
Who produces the world’s gold?
Gold production fell again in 2020. According to the World Gold Council, gold production came in at 3,478 tons last year. That compares with mine output of 3,597 tons in 2019.
President Biden has proposed a borrow and spend “to infinity and beyond” budget featuring $6 trillion in government spending. That’s the largest amount of spending ever proposed in a presidential budget. It’s not accurate to call it a “budget.” The federal government has given up on actual budgeting.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress on Tuesday and continued to peddle the “transitory” inflation narrative.
Keeping with the dovish tone set after last week’s FOMC meeting, Powell reiterated that the central bank is not going to rush to raise interest rates, and he said the Fed would not hike rates merely in response to inflation worries.
Central bankers at the Federal Reserve are talking a lot about what’s going to happen in the future. But what do they really know about what lies ahead?
The fact is, they don’t know a whole lot. But we do know one thing for sure – the debt in the US isn’t going away. It’s only going to increase.
