In another sign of rapidly accelerating price inflation, import-export prices rose much faster than expected in May.
Import prices were up 1.1% month-on-month in May, and the Labor Department revised April’s increase from 0.7% to 0.8%. Projections for May were for a 0.7% increase. The actual number was higher than the high end of estimates.
The Federal Reserve wrapped up its June meeting. While the central bank didn’t raise rates, the messaging coming out of the FOMC was widely viewed as hawkish. But was it really?
We don’t think so. In fact, the Fed’s messaging was extremely dovish. And the fact that it continues to ignore inflation doesn’t bode well for the future.
The federal government has already run a $2.06 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2021 with four months left to go. But somewhat surprisingly, over the last few months, the national debt hasn’t increased at nearly the pace you would expect considering the budget shortfalls. Given the level of spending, borrowing should be much higher. How has the federal government maintained its spending pace without borrowing at a much higher rate?
The US Treasury has been drawing down the balance in its Treasury General Account (TGA) at the Federal Reserve. But that maneuver is about to come to an end, so you can expect Treasury bond sales to spike in the coming months.
Typically, the US government runs a budget surplus in the month that tax returns come due. Not this year. Despite a surge in receipts, the federal government ran a $131.95 billion deficit in May, continuing the trend of overspending and ballooning budget shortfalls.
The federal budget deficit for fiscal 2021 now stands at $2.06 trillion with four months left to go. That compares with a $1.9 trillion deficit through the first seven months of fiscal 2020, which included the first round of stimulus checks in April 2020.
The CPI data came in higher than expected again in May. Looking at the trend, this should cast some serious doubt on the notion that inflation is “transitory.” Price data has come out hotter than expected every month this year. But the market reaction appears to be the exact opposite. The worse than expected CPI report seems to have reinforced the “inflation is transitory” narrative. Everybody seems to be buying into a lie the Fed is spoon-feeding us.
The Federal Reserve is the engine that drives one of the biggest, most powerful governments in the history of the world.
Without the Fed, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for the government to fund its foreign wars, its massive, unsustainable social programs, the ever-growing police state, and the tangled web of corporate welfare programs. It’s almost certain none of this would exist as we know it today – not even close. The federal government would truly be limited.
We got the May Consumer Price (CPI) Index data last week. Once again, it came in hotter than expected. In this article, we break down the data and show that this surge of inflation is anything by transitory.
In the first place, it’s important to remember that the CPI is reverse-engineered to mask inflation. It doesn’t really tell the whole story. But even half the story is pretty bad.
A US coin with a face value of $20 just sold for $18.9 million.
That’s quite a nice little bit of appreciation right there. Or one heck of a premium, depending on how you look at it.
It shouldn’t shock you to know it was a gold coin.
We got another round of hotter than expected CPI data this week. The mainstream financial media is spinning this as good news. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey digs into the CPI data without the rose-colored glasses. He also talks about an announcement by a major restaurant chain that may well be a canary in the coal mine. His conclusion – in the end, economics wins.
Government programs, political campaigns and wishful thinking can’t trump economics. In the end, economics always wins.
Chipotle’s recently announced menu price hikes bear this out.
