This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex as we move from September into October. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
Gold and silver have both significantly drained from the Comex inventory since August 1.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
The latest seasonally adjusted month-over-month inflation rate was 0.3% (vs. .4% expected), with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.3% (vs 5.4% expected). The reason for the fall from July’s .47% pace was spread across multiple categories, specifically Commodities, Food, Shelter, and Transportation.
While the CPI drop-off since the June peak appears to prove the Fed narrative of “transitory” inflation, a deep dive into the numbers shows why the Eccles building should keep the champagne on ice for the moment. Much of the recent pullback can be explained by the economy shutting down again in response to Delta. (more on this below).
The Federal Budget Deficit for August 2021 was $171B which was down from the $302B in July. The chart below shows the Federal Budget for the previous 18 months.
The Treasury bumped up against the debt ceiling at the end of July. Since then, it has been using “extraordinary measures” to allow the Government to keep hemorrhaging cash without having to increase the debt ceiling.
The chart below shows the month-over-month change in debt for August equal to $0. Despite zero net change, there are two important facts to highlight.
- The Treasury continued converting short term debt to long term
- Nonmarketable debt holdings shrunk by $257B
The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COTs) report is released once a week and shows a breakdown of open interest by trader category. The CFTC breaks down open interest by:
- Managed Money (e.g. Hedge Funds)
- Producers (e.g. gold mining companies)
- Swaps (e.g. banks)
- Non-Reportable
- Other
The Labor Department released its August jobs report on Friday. To say the numbers were disappointing would be an understatement.
According to the report, there was an increase of only 235k jobs, well below the estimated 720k. That’s a miss of nearly 500k jobs.
The month-on-month trade deficit fell in July but remains far larger than it was a year ago. And the Trailing Twelve Month figure hit a new record.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
Delivery for both gold and silver was underwhelming.
The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.33 trillion, up $111 billion from the prior month-end.
The chart below shows how the Fed Balance sheet has grown by instrument over the last 18 months. The major surge from COVID can be clearly seen as $2.5T was added within 2 months. The monthly changes since then reflect QE on autopilot.
