The BLS provides an employment picture of the US on the first Friday of every month. It estimates how many jobs were added or subtracted by sector. While some of the assumptions may be controversial (e.g. the birth/death model) and job numbers are prone to revisions, it remains the most widely anticipated statistic each month by the financial markets. Considering its popularity, the job numbers are heavily analyzed by many sources. This article uses visuals and historical data to provide greater insight and perspective.
“Just because something is inevitable, does not make it imminent, but eventually the future arrives”
The US Government is on an unsustainable debt trajectory. Even though the Federal Reserve has acknowledged this fact, most mainstream pundits consider it a distant problem or even not an issue at all. They argue that debt fears have raged since the debt crossed $1T decades ago and no negative consequences have materialized.
Gold was solidly above $1,800 an ounce this week until Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida mentioned the economy reaching the Fed’s goals earlier than expected and raised the specter of monetary policy tightening. But is the economy really improving as much as everybody seems to think? In this week’s Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey digs into some of the economic numbers and determines they’re faking it.
The US Trade Balance shows the deficit and surplus of US trade for Imports and Exports. A deficit occurs when imports are greater than exports. When the Trade Balance is in deficit (which it has been for decades), it accounts for one of the two components of the Twin Deficits. The Fiscal Deficit accounts for the other component and was reviewed in a previous article.
Gold continues to flow into ETFs. After increasing holdings by 40 tons in the second quarter, funds globally added another 11.1 tons of gold in July, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council.
The Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world have pumped trillions of dollars into the global economy and depressed interest rates to artificially low levels to blow up the mother of all bubbles. In his podcast, Peter Schiff explained how the recent acquisition of Afterpay by Square reveals the extent of this global bubble economy that will inevitably have to pop.
With the stimulus checks long ago spent, Americans have gone back to buying things the old-fashioned way – on credit.
Household debt surged by $313 billion in the second quarter to nearly $15 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Household Debt and Credit Report. It was the biggest quarterly dollar increase in household debt since 2007. In percentage terms, household debt grew by 2.1%, the biggest surge since Q4 2013.
Central banks globally added a net 199.2 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2021. That was the highest level of quarterly net purchases since Q2 2019 and 73% above the five-year quarterly average, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council.
Inflation continues to run rampant and it’s distorting the entire economy.
In a recent podcast, Peter Schiff explains how rising prices create the illusion of economic growth. And they are also allowing the US government to stealthily default on its massive debt. This is not a sign of a strong economy.
We’ve been talking a lot about rising prices. The CPI has come in hotter than expected every month this year. We’re paying more to buy less.
We see the impacts of inflation on price tags, but sometimes it squeezes us more subtlety. It’s known as “shrinkflation.”
