Gold and silver prices fell this week in light trade, with US markets closed on Monday for Labor Day. In European trade this morning, gold was at $1925, down $15 from last Friday’s close, and silver was at $23.05, down $1.10.
As the world descends into a much-heralded recession, the surprise will be that interest rates will continue to rise as economic activity contracts. This is not what the economic establishment expects.
This article puts the outlook in the context of classical economic theory, when it was the principles behind the division of labour which went unchallenged. Adopting the theme of Say’s law, this article permits a forecast with a high degree of certainty that far from a recession leading to lower prices, lower interest rates, and therefore investor heaven, it will lead to higher prices, higher interest rates, budget deficits soaring out of control, and liquidation of the dollar by over-exposed foreign holders.
In the last few days, gold and silver have paused their earlier rises. In the case of silver, these have been substantial, as shown in our headline chart. In gold, less so; but it does appear that silver is leading both metals higher. In European trade Friday morning, gold was $1944, up $39 on the week, and silver $24.60, up 40 cents. Silver is up 10% from its mid-August low, leading gold which is up only 3%.
As evidence mounts that the major Western economies are heading into a banking and monetary crisis due to contracting credit, we face the consequences of unsound money. The era of fiat is drawing to a close and its death will be painful for the highly indebted advanced economies in North America, Europe, and Japan. History and legal precedent tell us that fiat will die and gold will return to provide an anchor to credit system values.
Gold and silver rallied from the lows of last week in quiet Comex trade for gold, but more active trade in silver. In Europe this morning, gold was at $1916, up $27 from last Friday’s close, and silver was up $1.30 at $24.14.
It is slowly coming clear that the fiat dollar’s hegemony is drawing to a close. That’s what the BRICS summit in Johannesburg is all about — rats, if you like, deserting the dollar’s ship. With the dollar’s backing being no more than a precarious faith in it, it is bound to be sold down by foreign holders. Being only fiat, it could even become valueless, threatening to take down the other western alliance fiat currencies as well.
How do you protect your paper wealth from this outcome? Some swear by bitcoin and others by gold.
This article looks at what is likely to emerge as a replacement currency system, and concludes that from practical and legal aspects, bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency industry will fail with fiat, while mankind will return to gold, as it has always done in the past when state control over currency fails
The sell-off in precious metals which started in late July continued this week, but its momentum slowed with silver even showing a modest gain on the week so far. In early European trading, gold was $1892, having traded down to $1885 yesterday, for a net fall of $19 on the week. Silver was $22.78 having traded down to $22.30 on Tuesday but is up just 10 cents from last Friday’s close. On Comex, turnover in the gold contract was subdued, but in silver it was moderate to healthy.
Globally, further falls in consumer price inflation are now unlikely and there are yet further interest rate increases to come. Bond yields are already on the rise, and a new phase of a banking crisis will be triggered.
This article looks at the factors that have come together to drive interest rates higher, destabilising the entire global banking system. The contraction of bank credit is in its early stages, and that alone will push up interest costs for borrowers. We have an old-fashioned credit crunch on our hands.
