The Federal Reserve followed its script yesterday and raised interest rates another 25 basis points. But the central bankers did surprise some people by hinting at just two more hikes this year. Analysts have been fixated on the possibility of four 2018 rate increases.
The Fed’s slightly more dovish tone on rate hikes sent gold climbing. The yellow metal gained about 1% in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting.
Nevertheless, even while dampening expectations of faster tightening, the Fed continued to talk up the economy. In fact, the central bankers project continuing rate hikes all the way into 2020. In his most recent podcast, Peter said the Fed sounded even more optimistic about the economy than it has in the past. He called it “all politics,” designed to maintain the illusion that everything is great.
The Federal Reserve opens its March Open Market Committee meeting today. Most analysts say there is a 100% chance for a rate hike during this go-round. Overall, there is a decidedly hawkish attitude when it comes to the Fed. The real debate right now revolves around whether the central bank will hike three or four times in 2018.
But Peter Schiff said in his most recent podcast he isn’t certain about all of these rate hikes.
The fact is I’m still not 100% sure the Fed is going to hike on Wednesday. Now, I would argue or agree that it’s more likely than not that the Fed is going to hike because they’ve been hiking interest rates all along. The Fed, so far, has not given any indication that they’re not going to hike because they don’t want to give up the ghost of this vibrant recovery where they need to raise rates because everything is going so well. But that whole narrative, that whole illusion, seems to be fading very quickly.”
So, could we see a more dovish Fed before the week is out?
The dollar has shown some resilience this week. The dollar index clawed back after hitting multi-year lows last week. Meanwhile, gold saw its worst single-day decline in more than a year on Tuesday.
One thing that hasn’t changed is the upward pressure on bond yields. In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff said he thinks this is the reason we’re still seeing some life in the dollar and downward pressure on gold.
The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.
Pres. Donald Trump has nominated another swamp creature to sit on the Federal Reserve board of governors.
Marvin Goodfriend does not come from the ranks of politicians. He’s an academic – an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University. But he’s perfectly suited for the role of central planner. He fits right in with the other central bankers running what investment guru Jim Grant once called “the Ph.D. standard” monetary system, as opposed to the gold standard.
It looks like Trump’s pick to chair the Federal Reserve plans to walk in the footsteps of his predecessors.
In other words, we can expect the legacy of Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen to continue unbroken. That means a continuation of interventionist monetary policy, artificially low interest rates into the foreseeable future, and plenty of quantitative easing when the time comes.
Jerome Powell will take the reins of the Federal Reserve next year. After all the speculation about big changes at the Fed with Trump in the White House, it appears the new boss is pretty much the same as the old boss.
So much for draining the swamp. Powell is a swamp creature. As Peter Schiff pointed out, “He has pretty much voted in lockstep with Janet Yellen the entire time she has chaired the Fed. The only real difference between the two is party affiliation. Powell is affiliated with the Republican Party, even though he was nominated to be on the Fed by Barack Obama. So, obviously not that strong a Republican if he was acceptable to Barack Obama.”
In an article published on the Mises Institute blog, Ryan McMaken expanded on this theme, echoing Hunter Lewis who said Powell is more like Chuck Schumer than Donald Trump.
The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.
Trump said he was going to drain the swamp.
Apparently, the drain is clogged.
Trump picked another swamp creature to chair the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell got the nod to replace Janet Yellen when her term as Fed chair ends in February. As Tho Bishop at the Mises Institute put it, “this means Trump will ensure that, while the stationary at the Eccles Building will change, the monetary policy guiding it likely will not.”
