The Japanese and Chinese aren’t buying US Treasuries. In fact, both countries reduced their holdings in April.
According to the US Treasury Department, the Japanese disposed of $12.3 billion in US debt. Meanwhile, Chinese Treasury holdings fell by $5.8 billion.
This could be a troubling development for the US government as it scrambles to fund its massive deficits and ever-growing debt.
At this point, the European Central Bank isn’t nearly as keen on raising interest rates as the Federal Reserve. The ECB announced Thursday it would likely hold its interest rate steady at zero through the summer of 2019.
“We decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged and we expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary,” ECB President Mario Draghi said during a press conference.
As Peter Schiff pointed out in his most recent podcast, nobody expected the dovishness of the ECB and it roiled the markets. But ultimately, he thinks the Europeans will try to fight the wave of inflation that is about to engulf the planet. Meanwhile, the Fed probably won’t.
Jerome Powell is like a kid playing with matches and he’s dangerously close to starting a fire he isn’t going to be able to control.
The Federal Reserve nudged interest rates up again last week. It was the seventh hike since the Fed launched the current tightening cycle in December 2015. The Fed Funds Rate (FFR) currently sits at around 2%. Although this remains historically low, it may already be near the cycle peak. That means we may be close to a major economic downturn, as indicated by analysis by GoldMoney’s Alasdair MacLeod recently published at the Mises Wire.
As expected, the Federal Reserve nudged rates up another .25 basis points on Wednesday. Perhaps more significantly, the Fed took a more hawkish tone than expected, signaling it would likely increase rates two more times this year for a total of four hikes. The central bank had been projecting three 2018 rate increases.
A buildup in inflation pressures was a major reason for the Fed’s more hawkish tone. According to the latest data released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 2.8% year-over-year in May. The central bankers projected inflation will likely run above their 2% target into the near future. Analysts expect the CPI to hit 2.1% this year and run at that level through 2020.
In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said higher inflation might be a victory for the Federal Reserve, but it will be a big loss for consumers. In fact, we are heading for a no-growth, high-inflation economy.
World Gold Council chief market strategist John Reade recently talked to Commodity TV about the current state of the gold market and what he sees in the future.
Reade cast an optimistic tone, saying the supply and demand fundamentals point toward a healthy, growing gold market moving forward.
Mises Institute president Jeff Deist recently interviewed Danielle Booth, a veteran of the Dallas Fed and author of Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America, to discuss whether—or if—the Fed can ever return to “normal” monetary policy.
The US debt continues to skyrocket and it’s costing Uncle Sam more and more money just to make the interest payments.
The US public debt hit a record high of $21.145 trillion on the last day of May. Meanwhile, the cost of servicing all that debt also spiked, increasing by $26 billion through the first seven months of the fiscal year (October-April) compared with the same period last year.
Not everybody in the mainstream is bullish on the dollar and expecting rate hikes as far as the eye can see. In fact, the global head of commodities at TD securities sounds a little like Peter Schiff.
In his podcast last week, Peter said that the recent dollar strength is nothing more than upside correction in the midst of a bear market, emphasizing that the primary trend is down. He also said he thinks the Fed may be near the end of its hiking cycle.
What Can Mortgage Refi Applications Tell You About the Economy? SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap 06.01.18
The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.
Climbing interest rates are putting the squeeze on the mortgage refi market. Applications to refinance home mortgages fell 5% last week, dropping to an 18-year low.
According to CNBC, mortgage application volume was nearly 27% lower than a year ago when rates were lower. The refinance share of total mortgage application volume fell to its lowest level since August 2008, at just 35.3%.
As Peter Schiff pointed out in a recent podcast, this is a bad sign for the broader economy. With rising rates, US consumers will no longer have the option of using their house as an ATM.
