The Federal Government ran a $211B deficit in July. Except for February, this was the largest deficit since last July when the Treasury ran a deficit of $302B, and it was the second-largest July deficit ever.
The tax man cometh!
And thanks to the Democrats in Congress, there will be more tax enforcers shining their lights into the nooks and crannies of Americans’ finances.
The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for July came in nearly flat at -0.03%. This was on the heels of a blisteringly hot June number of 1.35%.
While inflation did surprise to the downside, it had been expected to be much lower due to the fall in oil and drop in gasoline prices. The YoY number also fell as the reading from last July of 0.46% fell off the calendar.
The Treasury increased the total debt by $27B in June. Activity slowed in the latest month across all instruments, but particularly the conversion of short-term to long-term. After massive moves to extend debt maturity and shrink short-term debt by $530B over 4 months (shown below by the large negative turquoise bars), July went very quiet.
According to the BLS, the economy added 528k jobs in July, blasting past analyst estimates of 250k. The strong report comes on the heels of a Fed meeting last week that made a point to state they are hyper-focused on the job market as a sign of a weakening economy. The White House and Fed are now in lock step ignoring negative GDP growth and hanging their hat on the job market. For now, that message fits their narrative.
Jobs are on everybody’s mind as the July employment report comes out. Will the labor market show more cracks? Or will it give the pundits more room to spin the idea that we’re not really in a recession? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about the labor market and breaks the July jobs data news as it comes out. He also talks about the “health” of the American consumer and gold’s flirtation with $1,800 an ounce.
The June trade deficit fell for a fourth straight month to -$79.6B.
While the deficit continues to drop from all-time highs, it is still larger than any month before 2022. June eclipsed December 2021 by $750M. December was a new record then, so the current deficit should be put into the context of longer history despite coming off recent highs.
Please note: the COT report was published 7/29/2022 for the period ending 7/26/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
As discussed last month, overall net positioning is the smallest it has been since May 2019. Then, on July 12, Managed Money went short gold for the first time since April 2019.
Are those shorts about to get squeezed?
Gold demand through the first half of 2022 came in at 2,189 tons, up 12% over the first half of last year, according to the World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q2 report.
Delivery volume in the July gold contract got off to the weakest start in years, but then had a major mid-month rally, turning it into one of the strongest minor months in recent history. Over the last 15 months, it only trailed the blow-out month of March. Momentum has continued in the August contract.