Jerome Powell and other policymakers at the Fed keep telling us they can raise interest rates and slay the inflation dragon because the economy is strong. But these central bankers have a long history of being wrong. And as host Mike Maharrey explains in this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, the recent GDP numbers undercut this latest Fed narrative. He also talks about a startling confession from the IMF director and Q1 gold demand.
You’re getting less for more every time you pull out your wallet. Inflation is chewing up the average person’s paycheck. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the real pain of inflation. He also talks about Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress, the trajectory of monetary policy, the strength of the economy, and he breaks the February jobs report live.
On Tuesday, the Atlanta Fed cut its GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2022 to zero.
Just a few days ago, the estimate was for 0.6% growth. That was down from 1.3% just a few days before that.
This is not an encouraging trend.
Joe Biden keeps touting the “booming” economic recovery. And of course, he’s taking credit for it. But is the economy really booming?
If you look at GDP growth, it certainly appears the US economy is in the midst of a robust recovery. But economic growth is relative. And when your baseline is an economy that was shut down, any growth looks good. Of course, there is going to be growth from virtually zero.
But there is an even deeper problem with using GDP to gauge economic health. Like the government CPI formula, the GDP is calculated in a way that creates an illusion.
November 2021 charted a total trade deficit of -$80.2B just shy of the record -$81.4B in September. However, the data this month is far more concerning when digging into the details.
After a massive surge in the trade deficit occurred in September, October saw a big pullback to -$67.1B. The details showed that the volatility was driven by a data anomaly where Exported Goods from September were pulled into October. This created a series of Exported Goods values of $149.8B in August followed by $142.7B and $158.8B in September and October. Essentially, $8B moved from September to October, driving the trade deficit to all-time records.
Hedge funds closed shorts and went long in both gold and silver in October.
Please note: the COTs report was published 10/29/2021 for the period ending 10/26/2021. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
The Commitment of Traders analysis last month highlighted the potential over-extension of the shorts leading to a rebound. This proved to be the case in a big way. Unfortunately, the momentum lost steam and the $1810s for gold presented too much resistance.
As governments shut down the economy in response to COVID-19 and the Federal Reserve put money printing into hyperdrive, we warned that it was a recipe for stagflation. Today, it looks like stagnation is here.
Stagflation is an economic environment with rapidly rising prices, a weak labor market, and low GDP growth. It’s looking more and more like we have all three elements.
Inflation continues to run rampant and it’s distorting the entire economy.
Rising prices create the illusion of economic growth. And they are also allowing the US government to stealthily default on its massive debt. This is not a sign of a strong economy.
GDP for the second quarter disappointed, coming in at an annualized rate of 6.5%. Is this a sign of impending stagflation?
While 6.5% growth looks good on the surface, economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected annualized GDP to chart around 9.1%. This was a huge miss and indicates the economy isn’t growing nearly as fast as everybody assumed.
There was a lot of news and economic data that came out this week. The Fed held its April meeting. President Biden unveiled yet another tax and spend plan. And the Q1 GDP numbers came out. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey gives an overview of the week’s news and draws a rather unsettling conclusion — this economy is totally jacked up.
