According to the mainstream narrative, the US economy is quickly recovering from the downturn caused by lockdowns in response to COVID-19. And while the downturn was sharp and painful, it really didn’t cause any long-term economic damage. Good times are ahead! After all, just look at the booming GDP numbers.
And therein lies a problem. The GDP doesn’t really give us a good picture of what’s going on in the economy. In fact, the way the number is calculated actually hides economic damage.
Gold and silver have had a tough week. So have stocks. In a lot of ways, it looked like March all over again, with worries about increasing COVID-19 cases and new lockdowns. But then we got the Q3 GDP number and that injected a dose of optimism. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the dynamics in the markets and provides a little reality check on that big GDP number.
US stock markets just had their best month since 1987. Meanwhile, the economic data is as bad as it’s ever been. It’s almost like a tale of two cities. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs into some of the data and explains why the damage to the economy caused by the coronavirus government shutdowns is deeper than a lot of people think. He also talks about silver. It’s as cheap as it’s ever been in human history.
Everybody realizes the US economy is in a bad spot. But most people still seem to believe it will bounce right back once we deal with the coronavirus.
They’re all high on Federal Reserve fairy dust.
The Federal Reserve held its first FOMC meeting of 2020. It was mostly met with yawns as the Fed held rates steady, and despite a somewhat dovish tone, indicated that it probably wouldn’t make any moves on interest rates this year. We’ve grown so used to low interest rates that it barely registers that the Fed is actually engaged in extreme monetary policy. Extreme has become the new normal. In this week’s Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about it. He also touches on the Q4 GDP report and some interesting gold supply and demand trends.
Stock markets made new highs on Wednesday, but as Peter Schiff explained in his latest podcast, there are a lot of cracks under the surface. The markets are surging forward even as they overlook bad economic data and chilly political winds.
Here is a summary of some of the significant economic data/news that came out last week.
Third-quarter 2019 new orders for durable goods remain on track for a second annual decline. August 2019 Real New Orders for Durable Goods showed a monthly gain of 0.2% [1.0% ex-Commercial Aircraft], but an annual decline of 4.9% [down by 2.1% (-2.1%) ex-Commercial Aircraft].
Consumer debt is driving American economic growth.
Total outstanding consumer debt surged over $4.1 trillion in the second quarter of 2019, according to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve.
American indebtedness grew by 4.9 over the year, and the quarterly gain from Q1 to Q2 came in at $60 billion — the biggest second-quarter increase since Q2 2016. Over the last 12 months, American consumers have piled on an additional $208 billion of debt.
The Commerce Department released the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth on Friday. It came in higher than expected at 3.2%.
Somewhat surprisingly, the price of gold rose on the news and the dollar showed some weakness. The primary reason was presumably lower inflation. This means the Fed still has the excuse it needs to continue the Powell Pause.
There was also some data in the Commerce Department’s report that reveals shakiness in that growth number. In fact, Peter Schiff said he thinks this will likely be the strongest growth of the year.
The Dow Jones closed out Q1 2019 with its best quarterly gain since 1998, rising 10.3% through the first three months of the year. And the Dow Jones wasn’t alone in its bang-up first quarter. The S&P 500 rose 12.3%. The Russell 2000 was up 13.8%. And the Nasdaq led the entire pack with a 15.6% gain.
As Peter Schiff said in his latest podcast, the entire rally was a gift from the Federal Reserve.
