Last week’s jobs numbers came in weaker than expected. September’s CPI came in hotter than expected. That puts the Federal Reserve between a rock and a hard place. Does it tighten monetary policy to fight inflation? Or does it keep stimulating to boost the economy? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the data and says it’s about time for the central bank to pick its poison.
The CPI data for September came in hotter than expected at 0.4%. That pushed the yearly gain to 5.4%. But an honest CPI calculation would come in even hotter.
I am doing something different this month. In past reviews of the CPI, I typically take the BLS data and recalculate the values to get a more detailed number that is rounded to two decimal points instead of one. This methodology also allows me to show the impact of each component on the top-line number.
With CPI data once again coming in hotter than expected, it’s getting harder and harder for the mainstream to swallow the “transitory inflation” narrative.
And some people are starting to worry.
During an earnings call, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about higher than expected and persistent inflation ahead.
September CPI came in above expectations. At this point, even the central bankers at the Federal Reserve are having a hard time sticking to the “transitory inflation” narrative.
In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the CPI report. He said it reveals that we’re entering an inflation super-cycle and perhaps the markets are starting to figure this out.
Peter called this the “government report card on inflation,” noting that it’s not particularly reliable because the government is grading itself.
There was a recent scandal at the Federal Reserve when information came out revealing that several central bank officials made multiple multimillion-dollar stock trades in 2020 even as the Fed was putting its big fat thumb on the economic scales. But as Ron Paul points out, there’s an even bigger scandal over at the Federal Reserve and it’s a matter of policy. The Fed’s manipulation of monetary policy and the broader economy impoverishes ordinary Americans, even as it enriches the elites, and facilitates government debt and deficits.
Government policies – from shutdowns, to stimulus, to vaccine mandates – in response to the coronavirus pandemic have thrown the US economy completely out of whack. Looking at employment reveals just how messed up the economy has become.
The number of Americans quitting their jobs surged to a record high in August. According to the Labor Department Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, job quits increased by 242,000 in August, pushing the total to a record 4.3 million. The quits rate surged to an all-time high of 2.9% in August from 2.7% in July.
Consumer borrowing has slowed somewhat from the record level we saw in June, but Americans continue to pile on the debt.
Consumer debt grew by $14.4 billion in August to $4.35 trillion, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. That represents a 4% increase.
This follows on the heels of a 4.8% increase in July after a record 10.6% increase in June.
A surge of imported services drove the trade deficit to a new record in August. Peter Schiff appeared on NTD News to talk about the trade imbalance. He said it is not a sign of a strong economy and not the kind of records we want to be breaking.
The fake debt ceiling fight rages on.
Last week, the US Senate agreed to a small increase in the borrowing limit, but it only kicked the can down the road a couple of months. The $480 billion increase raises the debt limit to $28.9 trillion, but that’s only going to last until Dec. 3.
Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT Boom Bust to debate economist Steve Keen and Professor Richard Wolf on the debt ceiling and more broadly the US economy.
We got the highly anticipated employment report on Friday. It came in far below expectations. But despite weak economic data, bond yields are rising, along with the price of just about everything. Meanwhile, a gold rally fizzled. Peter Schiff talked about it during his podcast, explaining just how badly the markets are misinterpreting the data. When you add up plunging bonds yields, strong oil, and weak economic data – that equals stagflation.
