Gold has been rangebound of late, bouncing between $1,750 and $1,800 an ounce for several months. Given the inflationary environment, one would expect gold to be soaring. So, what’s going on with the yellow metal? And when will the price of gold go up? Peter Schiff tackled this question during a recent Q&A session on YouTube.
Trade deficits used to be an important market mover. In fact, many blame the 1987 stock market crash on a much worse than expected trade deficit. That led to weak dollar and bond markets that bled over into the stock market. But today, traders mostly ignore the trade deficit. In fact, the US trade deficit set another record in September and the markets didn’t blink. Peter Schiff talked about it in his podcast.
Hedge funds closed shorts and went long in both gold and silver in October.
Please note: the COTs report was published 10/29/2021 for the period ending 10/26/2021. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
The Commitment of Traders analysis last month highlighted the potential over-extension of the shorts leading to a rebound. This proved to be the case in a big way. Unfortunately, the momentum lost steam and the $1810s for gold presented too much resistance.
I reported last week that Comex delivery activity was looking very quiet in both gold and silver. The results for November are very weak. That being said, October and November are historically slow months, so the real test will come in December.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
The Federal Reserve has slightly slowed its asset purchases over the last few months. Was this a trial mini-taper?
If so, the results are not good news for the central bankers over at the Fed.
The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.56 trillion. That’s up by $108 billion from the prior month-end, but down over the past week by $8.7 billion. The chart below shows how the Fed Balance sheet has grown by instrument over the last 18 months.
Is inflation transitory, as Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has claimed for months? Or are we on the verge of hyperinflation, as Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey recently warned? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks inflation, digs into the data, and concludes that it’s pretty clear we’re in an inflationary spiral.
How much gold is there in the world?
The simple answer — not much!
Scarcity is one of the characteristics that give gold value.
Consumers have been hit hard in the wallet by inflation this year, with CPI up 5.4% year-on-year in September. But consumer prices are only part of the inflation equation. Producers of goods and services also face rising prices in an inflationary environment. Producer price increases have been even more dramatic than the rise in CPI, and we’re starting to see those higher prices trickle down to consumers. This is yet another indication that inflation is far from “transitory.”
In the latest period, M2 increased by $163 billion and sits just shy of $21 trillion. This represents a 0.78% MoM increase which annualizes to 9.8%. This is below last month’s rise of $254B and last September’s rise of $223B.
The “transitory inflation” narrative has completely broken down. And now Twitter and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has warned us.
Hyperinflation is coming.
