Years ago, markets used to pay a lot of attention to the money supply and trade deficits. Now, these numbers barely get a passing mention. In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said he thinks what is old will become new again and trade deficits and money printing will once again come front and center.
Stocks took off on Friday on several big news items – most significantly President Trump’s announcement that the US and China have worked out phase one of a trade deal. In his podcast, Peter broke down the news. He also made an interesting observation: Trump and the Federal Reserve seem to be reading off the same script.
Yesterday, Jerome Powell announced that the Fed will soon launch another round of quantitative easing. Except he insisted it will not be doing quantitative easing.
This is not QE. In no sense is this QE.”
What the Fed will be doing, according to Powell, is expanding its balance sheet. Powell said details of the process will be explained in the following days, but it will involve the purchase of Treasurys.
This sounds an awful lot like QE, as Peter Schiff emphasized in his podcast.
Last week, we got bad news in the manufacturing sector. The ISM index of national factory activity dropped to a 10-year low. It was the second straight month the number was below 50, which indicates a contraction in manufacturing. That news sent stock markets into a tailspin. This was followed up by a very week service sector report the following day.
In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff said the service sector is about to follow manufacturing into recession. He also talked about the recent employment numbers and explained how the Fed is acting like a Soviet Politburo.
As Peter Schiff put it in his podcast, if the first trading day of the fourth quarter was a sign of things to come, bulls on Wall Street are in for a rough end to the year. In fact, Peter said the party is over and you don’t want to be the last one to leave.
During a recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the student loan debacle.
In a nutshell, it’s the government’s fault.
Democratic presidential candidates have been talking about the student loan crisis. And it is indeed a crisis. The total of the outstanding student loans in the US has more than doubled since 2009 when it was $675 million. The rate of delinquency on student loan debt pushed up to 9.5% in the first quarter of 2019, even as total student loan debt climbed to $1.49 trillion. Currently American owe more than $1.5 trillion in student loan debt. That’s more than their outstanding credit card balances.
The Federal Reserve did exactly what the markets expected on Wednesday, cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points.
The central bank sent out mixed signals about what will happen next. Markets widely construed the Fed’s messaging as somewhat hawkish. In its policy statement, the Fed said the US economy is growing at a “moderate” rate and the labor market “remains strong. It cut rates, “in light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures.”
In his podcast, Peter Schiff reiterated this was just another step toward zero and said whatever the Fed wants to call its mechanizations, they’re going to stink to high heaven.
Former Reagan administration OMB Director David Stockman has called this the “mother of all bond bubbles.” Has that bubble popped? That remains to be seen, but bonds got hammered last week.
Bonds have pretty much moved in tandem with gold over the last several weeks as perceived safe-haven trades. Peter Schiff talked about it in his latest podcast, saying he thinks the bond market is eventually going to decouple from gold.
Donald Trump has been badgering Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for months, begging for lower interest rates. Yesterday, he took things to another level, saying that the “boneheads” at the Fed need to push rates into negative territory.
In his podcast, Peter Schiff said negative interest rates are boneheaded.
US manufacturing activity contracted in August, according to the latest data.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI index for August came in at 49.1. Any number under 50 signals a drop in manufacturing. This was the first contraction in three years and the first time the index has dropped below 50 since August 2016. August marked the fifth straight monthly decline.
Meanwhile, IHS Markit PMI hit 50.3, the lowest number since September 2009 – in the aftermath of 2008 crash.
