The price analysis last month highlighted how gold was trying to carve out fragile support around $1900 and breakthrough resistance at $1950.
Gold found a spark and broke through $1950, but has been unable to hold above it in the wake of “hawkish” Fed comments. Now, $1900 is being tested and should give clues to the next move. So far, it has held with only a slight dip into the $1800s before recovering. A hard bounce here would prove near-term bullish, but if the price breaks down below $1880 it could be a few more months until gold musters the strength to take on $2000 again.
Delivery volume for silver on the COMEX has dropped to the lowest level in months. Are banks ignoring silver to focus on gold?
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
The Treasury ran a budget deficit of $193B in the month of March. This exceeded the 12-month average of $144B.
Over the last year, the Treasury has seen a massive influx of Individual tax revenues that have helped support the ballooning Federal Deficit. Unfortunately, spending has been so high that the additional revenue did not give much reprieve, causing the Treasury to borrow $2.27T over the last 12 months.
The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for March was 1.21% month over month, with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.56%. Both of these numbers came in slightly above expectations, which were elevated due to the war in Ukraine.
As we approach the middle of the month, here are the trends we’re seeing in the COMEX, along with a little more data on the national debt.
The US Treasury added $111 billion in debt during March. Meanwhile, rising interest rates are already creating problems for Uncle Sam. Annualized interest on the US debt has increased by over $16 billion in just six months. Following is an analysis of US debt holdings.
The US continues to run massive trade deficits. Despite the lack of interest in the mainstream, trade deficits matter. And as Peter Schiff said last fall, we can’t just ignore these trade deficits forever.
February did not set a new monthly trade deficit record, but it was very close, and it was worse than projected.
There is a correlation between Managed Money activity and the price of gold. Managed Money net longs str down from their March peak. This indicates there is money on the sideline that could rush into the market if gold breaks through current resistance
Please note: the COTs report was published 4/1/2022 for the period ending 3/28/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
According to the BLS, the economy added 431k jobs in March. February was revised up to 750k from an original 678k. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%.
It would appear this was another strong jobs report. But when you did into the data, it’s not that clear-cut.
