In yet another sign inflation might not be transitory, over 85% of manufacturers reported increasing prices in July in the most recent manufacturing ISM report. At some point, producers will have to take steps to mitigate the impact of rising prices. That means passing costs on to consumers, cutting costs, or some combination of the two.
The Federal Reserve wrapped up its July meeting on Wednesday. Once again, there was a whole lot of talk and no action.
The Fed kept interest rates at zero. The Fed kept its quantitative easing program rolling. The Fed didn’t do anything. But the Fed had plenty to say.
For months, the markets have anticipated the Fed tightening monetary policy in order to take on rising inflation. At the June FOMC meeting, the central bank even hinted that it might start raising interest rates in 2023 instead of 2024, and the central bankers apparently talked about talking about tapering their quantitative easing bond-buying program. But with all of this talk, the loose monetary policy driving inflation continues unabated. Interest rates remain pegged at zero. The Fed balance sheet sets new records week after week. Where exactly is the exit door?
Here we go again.
The clock is ticking down to another US debt ceiling battle.
In the Federal Reserve’s new world of “transitory” inflation, Americans are paying more to get less.
Retail sales were up 0.6% from May to June. According to the Commerce Department, American consumers spent $621 billion on retail goods and services last month. With the big 1.7% drop in May, retail sales remained below levels in March and April.
Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stuck to his “transitory” inflation narrative during testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. That’s his story and he’s sticking to it!
For the sixth month in a row, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in much higher than expected. But the question remains: how long will the Fed keep up the “transitory” inflation narrative? And when they do abandon this storyline and acknowledge inflation, what can the central bankers really do about it?
The CPI surged 0.9% month-on-month in June. It was the biggest monthly price increase of the year, blowing away expectations of a 0.5% increase. Stop and think about that number. Prices rose nearly 1% in a single month.
I haven’t heard; are we allowed to celebrate the Fourth of July or nah?
You may recall that after Joe Biden was elected, he said if we were good little citizens and wore our masks, we might be able to celebrate with our friends and families on the Fourth of July. But I never have heard if the president gave us our permission slip or not.
By the way — this doesn’t seem to keep with the spirit of the holiday as I remember it.
The markets have obsessed over what the Fed is saying while almost completely ignoring what it’s actually doing.
After the June FOMC meeting, markets reacted to the hint that the Fed might start raising interest rates in 2023 instead of 2024. But of course, it didn’t move rates up from zero. And while the Fed apparently talked about talking about tapering its quantitative easing bond-buying program, it continues to expand its balance sheet at a torrid pace.
“Officer, I need to report my wife. She lost her gold necklaces.”
That’s basically what happened in Strongsville, Ohio, recently.
