I hope everybody had a great Christmas and found everything they wanted under their Christmas tree.
In the spirit of the season, I want to tell you about a Christmas present James Madison gave the United States way back in 1798. It is a bit of history that has fallen down the Orwellian memory hole. But it is extremely important to understand because it has a powerful application today.
Labor market productivity has been dropping for decades. And you can trace the plunge back to the demise of the gold standard.
US labor market productivity plummeted in the third quarter of 2021. Revisions to the data showed a 5.2% drop in productivity, even worse than the dismal initial reading last month. It was the worst productivity decline since 1960.
Taper? What taper?
Last week, the Fed announced that it plans to speed up the pace of its asset purchase taper. But so far, this taper hasn’t been very impressive. Between Dec. 8 and Dec. 15, the Fed added another 92.1 billion to its balance sheet, expanding it to a record $8.757 trillion.
‘Tis the season for Christmas specials.
I’m not going to lie – even as a grown man, I love watching Christmas specials. Snoopy decorating his dog house. The Grinch folding up the Christmas tree like an umbrella and stuffing it up the chimney. And Frosty the snowman melting in the greenhouse.
In October, retail sales surged much higher than expected, rising 1.7%. The mainstream gushed over retail spending, asserting that it was a sign that the economy is booming. At the time, I argued that it wasn’t necessarily good news.
Well, the news just got even worse. Retail sales in November disappointed, despite another big surge in inflation.
The producer price index rose at the fastest rate in the history of the data set in November. This is a runaway inflation train hurtling down the tracks toward consumers. And despite all the talk, the Fed won’t be able to stop it.
The federal government lacks any legitimate constitutional authority to establish welfare programs for the poor. Not only that, the federal welfare system fails in its promise to “help the poor” out of poverty.
Inflation is running rampant. At first, the powers that be tried to convince us it wasn’t a problem because it was just a temporary phenomenon caused by coronavirus. (As if a virus could cause the money supply to increase.) But now, the transitory inflation narrative is dead. Jerome Powell recently admitted that it’s time to “retire” that word. The new strategy seems to be to try to convince you that rising prices are “good for you” and the broader economy. You can decide for yourself the veracity of that argument.
That was one weird jobs report.
The labor department released the November employment data on Friday. The numbers simply don’t make any sense. As one chief investment officer put it, “One of the weirdest reports I have ever seen.”
One thing seems pretty certain. The labor market has not recovered, no matter how the powers that be spin the numbers.
It appears American consumers are going to have a red Christmas this year.
Red — as in going deeper into debt.
