Gold had another precipitous drop on Wednesday (Sept. 23), falling through the support level at $1,900 to a 2-month low. That has led some to ask – is the gold bull dead?
The concern is understandable but I think it’s too early to declare last rites. In order to believe the gold bull run is over, you have to believe the Federal Reserve is actually going to tighten monetary policy and the dollar is going to remain strong.
That seems rather unbelievable.
To hear Federal Reserve officials, politicians and mainstream financial media pundits tell it – there is no inflation. In fact, the consumer price index remains “stubbornly low” according to those who view rising prices as an economic good. But inflation defined correctly is rampant. In fact, it is at all-time record levels.
Strictly speaking, inflation is an increasing money supply, and by that measure, it hs set records for five straight months.
The 2020 budget deficit surged passed $3 trillion in August even as the US government continues to borrow and spend at a torrid pace. Since March, the federal government has added $3.3 trillion to the national debt. That is on top of the $1.4 trillion in debt Uncle Sam piled on in the 12 months through February 2020.
So, who is buying all of this government debt?
There are a lot of buyers out there, but when you boil it all down, the US government wouldn’t be able to maintain this level of borrowing and spending without the backstop of the Federal Reserve.
I’m not sure that this is appropriate for “fun” on Friday. It’s more like sad on Friday. Or ironic on Friday. But I don’t have anything more fun, so I’m going to run with this.
As you may know, yesterday was Constitution Day. And you know what? The federal government can’t even get that right.
If you go to McDonald’s, you expect to get a hamburger. If you go to KFC, you expect to get chicken. And if you go to the Federal Reserve, you expect to get easy money.
The Fed delivered exactly what you would expect at this month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting that wrapped up Wednesday.
The Chinese are threatening to dump US Treasuries even as the federal government borrows money at a torrid rate. If the Chinese were to follow through, it could wreak havoc on the bond market and send interest rates surging despite the Federal Reserve’s best efforts to hold them down.
Can you believe it’s already Labor Day weekend?
In some ways, 2020’s stay has dragged on seemingly forever — like an unwanted aunt visiting “for a while.” But in other ways, 2020 has just flown by. I mean, it’s already fall — although I live in north Florida so it feels like anything but fall.
According to CBO projections, the federal budget deficit will come in at $3.3 trillion for fiscal 2020. That’s more than triple the budget shortfall last year and more than double the previous deficit record set at the onset of the Great Recession.
I’ve written sever Fun on Friday articles about gold scams. Usually, the victims are elderly folks and you can kind of understand how they might get fooled by scammers. But you know who I wouldn’t expect to get conned in a gold scam?
And yet, here we are.