A lot of the economic data this month looks strong. But when you dig a little deeper, you find that this “strength” is an illusion.
Following is a breakdown of several of these data points with some help from our friends at Passant Gardant.
We tend to focus a lot on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, while the central bank’s balance sheet stays in the background. But the balance sheet arguably has more impact on the economy over the long run.
Since the Fed began hiking interest rates in March 2022, it has also shrunk the balance sheet. But balance sheet reduction hasn’t been aggressive. In fact, the decline in the balance sheet since the pandemic is like a drop of water in the ocean compared to the massive expansion we’ve seen since 2008.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell went to Capitol Hill this week and talked. His open-mouth operations dominated the financial news and drove gold lower. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey digs into Powell’s comments, reads between the lines, and points out a couple of things Powell got completely wrong. He also talks about some actual economic news that most people just ignored.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday (June 21). The Fed chief engaged in some more open-mouth operations, trying to guide monetary policy with words instead of actions.
To understand a few things he said, you have to read between the lines.
Oh, and he also got at least a couple of things wrong along the way.
Last week, the national debt pushed above $32 trillion. This is a ticking time bomb that will eventually explode.
Every month, we get government job reports that tell us the labor market is booming. Then we get an avalanche of mainstream headlines telling us that this is a sign the economy is just fine.
But these government job numbers simply don’t make sense.
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) put rate hikes on pause at the June meeting, although it indicated we should expect additional hikes before the end of the year.
The question is how long will the pause last and will the next Fed move actually be a rate cut?
How much is the inflation tax costing you?
Based on calculations by public finance economist EJ Antoni, around $7,200 since January 2021 for the average family.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by the smallest annual amount in more than two years in May.
This means the inflation fight is over and inflation lost, right?
Not so fast.
Congress “solved” the debt ceiling problem by effectively eliminating borrowing limits for the next two years. But it did nothing to address the underlying problem. And that underlying problem is painfully obvious when you look at the monthly budget deficits the federal government continues to run month after month.
In May, the Biden administration piled another $240.3 billion onto the fiscal 2023 deficit, running it to $1.38 trillion with four months left to go, according to the latest Monthly Treasury Statement.
