The January CPI report threw cold water on the idea that the Federal Reserve has inflation under control. While the headline annual CPI came down a tick to 6.4%, month-on-month prices rose by 0.5%. After the data came out, Peter Schiff appeared on NTD News to explain why inflation is going to get even worse.
Garbage in, garbage out. The phrase is usually associated with computers, but it also applies to the formulas used to generate government economic data. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey goes over the January CPI and retail sales data with that phrase in mind.
CPI came in hotter than expected in January and threw cold water on the “disinflation” narrative that was gaining steam in the mainstream. Less-reported were the revisions of past CPI data. These undercut that narrative even further.
The CPI data for October, November and December were all revised higher.
With the CPI losing the relief from cooling energy prices, this month showed a solid uptick in prices, coming in at 0.54% (~6.6% annualized).
After the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the mainstream was giddy. “Inflation is over!” they proclaimed. “The Fed is winning the inflation fight!” they cried. “We are entering a period of disinflation!” they insisted.
Well, the January CPI report threw cold water on that disinflation narrative.
Last week, the Producer Price Index data finally showed some cooling of wholesale prices. That coupled with better-than-expected CPI data further buoyed hope that the Fed is winning the war on inflation. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff emphasized that easing inflation is transitory. And a weakening dollar will be a big part of the story.
The CPI cooled again in December driven by a massive fall in Energy prices. As shown below, the fall in Energy has been a big reason for the recent drop in inflation. Commodities have also been a driver down as Used Cars and Trucks fell -2.5% MoM and -8.8% YoY. That said, stickier items like Shelter continue to increase.
The headline numbers from December’s CPI report give the impression that price inflation is continuing to cool. Markets are giddy at the prospect. But in this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey argues that “cooling” price inflation is most likely transitory and the markets still don’t really understand the Fed’s position. He also gives an overview of gold’s performance in 2022.
Based on the headline numbers, price inflation cooled again in December, boosting market optimism that the Federal Reserve will continue to ease off the pedal on its monetary tightening. But this could be setting the stage for more price inflation down the road.
And a deeper look at the data reveals that a lot of inflationary pressure remains despite the optimistic headlines.
Last week, CPI data came in cooler than expected but Jerome Powell’s rhetoric remained hot. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 50 basis points and the Fed chair maintained a hawkish tone. Peter talked about the CPI data and the Fed meeting in his podcast. He said the bottom line is the Fed is still completely oblivious to the disaster it has created.
