During his post- FOMC meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, “Hope for the best; plan for the worst.”
I think he meant, “Live in hope; die in despair.”
The Atlanta Fed has lowered its GDP estimate for the third quarter to 0.3%, and the trend is downward. That means the economy is teetering on the verge of another quarter of negative GDP growth. Would that be enough to raise recession alarms?
Federal Reserve rate hikes will add trillions to the national debt, according to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Gold demand in China showed renewed strength over the last two months despite scattered COVID-19 lockdowns. Both gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in August and gold imports in July were up.
China ranks as the world’s number one gold consumer.
When it comes to the economy, inflation, and the Federal Reserve, the mainstream just doesn’t get it.
This headline from Fox Business reveals the level of confusion.
“Retail sales unexpectedly edge higher in August despite soaring inflation” [Emphasis added]
While gold dropped last week, silver rallied. Peter Schiff called it a “silver lining” that could indicate we’re near the bottom in the precious metals dip.
Gold and silver have sold off with every inflation surprise to the upside. The markets think persistent inflation means the Fed will get even more aggressive with rate hikes. They fail to realize that the central bank will not bend this inflation curve.
Inflation continues to surprise to the upside. Meanwhile, the economy continues to surprise to the downside. But the markets continue to believe that the Federal Reserve can slay the inflation monster while still guiding the economy to a so-called “soft landing.” FedEx announced some news last week that undercuts this narrative. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about why the landing is going to be hard. And when the economy crashes, the Fed inflation fight will be over.
The federal government ran a $220 billion deficit in August. It was the largest monthly deficit since last July.
We got the August CPI data this week and it came in hotter than expected. Stocks suffered a big selloff. Everybody is betting on the Fed to get even more aggressive in its inflation fight. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the data and exposes a dirty little secret that the mainstream still hasn’t come to grips with.
