The US government is rolling in dough!
US tax receipts have surged this year. Through August, the US Treasury had collected over $4.4 trillion in revenue for fiscal 2022 with one month left to go. That was already 10% higher than receipts in 2021. The US government took in $303.73 billion in August alone. That was up 23% from August 2021.
The Federal Reserve is between a rock and a hard place, and it’s going to have to make a hard choice – inflation or economic implosion. Peter Schiff talked about it on his podcast.
Physical metal has continued to drain from COMEX vaults. This is particularly true for silver, which now has 17.4 paper ounces for every registered ounce.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Although gold has been one of the best-performing assets in 2022, it has faced significant headwinds due to rising interest rates and a strong dollar. Members of a panel discussion during the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) annual precious metals conference agreed that gold and silver prices may still face headwinds in the near term as investors continue to anticipate an aggressive Federal Reserve fight against inflation. But they were bullish on the long-term potential of the precious metals market.
Social Security recipients will be getting a big raise in 2023. That’s good news if you’re receiving benefits from the program, but not so great if you’re hoping inflation will abate any time soon.
The Social Security Administration recently announced an 8.7% cost of living adjustment (COLA) for next year. That goes on top of a substantial 5.9% COLA for 2022. The 2023 increase is the largest in 40 years.
Gold is migrating from the West to the East.
As Bloomberg described it, many western investors – particularly at the institutional level – are dumping bullion. Meanwhile, Asian buyers are taking advantage of lower prices to snap up less expensive jewelry, coins, and bars.
As Peter Schiff put it in a recent podcast, the inflation insanity continues.
We got the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and it once again came in hotter than expected. Month-on-month, CPI was up 0.4%. That was double the 0.2% expectation. On an annual basis, the CPI was 8.2%.
The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came out on Thursday. Once again, it was “hotter than expected,” despite the Federal Reserve hiking rates by over 3% since March. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the CPI data in the context of the Fed’s inflation fight and concludes “this is what losing looks like.”
The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for September came in at 0.38%, dropping to 8.25% YoY. Median expectations had been for 0.3% MoM and 8.1% YoY so the hot number hammered markets on the open, especially precious metals.
The markets climbed their way back as of publishing, indicating the investors may be starting to understand the Fed’s predicament even though the probability of a 75bps hike in November is now a near certainty at 99%.
On the surface, the September job numbers looked pretty good. The economy continues to add jobs and the unemployment rate fell. But these headline numbers paper over underlying problems in the economy.
While President Biden brags about job growth, the average American is working more just to maintain last year’s standard of living.
