Gold continues to flow into ETFs. After increasing holdings by 40 tons in the second quarter, funds globally added another 11.1 tons of gold in July, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council.
In yet another sign inflation might not be transitory, over 85% of manufacturers reported increasing prices in July in the most recent manufacturing ISM report. At some point, producers will have to take steps to mitigate the impact of rising prices. That means passing costs on to consumers, cutting costs, or some combination of the two.
With the stimulus checks long ago spent, Americans have gone back to buying things the old-fashioned way – on credit.
Household debt surged by $313 billion in the second quarter to nearly $15 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Household Debt and Credit Report. It was the biggest quarterly dollar increase in household debt since 2007. In percentage terms, household debt grew by 2.1%, the biggest surge since Q4 2013.
Central banks globally added a net 199.2 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2021. That was the highest level of quarterly net purchases since Q2 2019 and 73% above the five-year quarterly average, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council.
GDP for the second quarter disappointed, coming in at an annualized rate of 6.5%. Is this a sign of impending stagflation?
While 6.5% growth looks good on the surface, economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected annualized GDP to chart around 9.1%. This was a huge miss and indicates the economy isn’t growing nearly as fast as everybody assumed.
India ranks as the second-largest gold-consuming country in the world, second only behind China, but demand has languished for the last couple of years. The pandemic crushed demand, particularly for gold jewelry, but record-high gold prices in rupee terms and government policy put a drag on the gold market even before COVID-19. There were signs of a turnaround late last year and it continued through the first quarter of 2021. The most recent wave of COVID-19 stalled the gold Indian gold market’s recovery, but it appears to be regaining steam.
While the Federal Reserve continues to downplay inflation in the US, insisting that it is “transitory,” the Bank of Russia has gone to war with rising prices. Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina says she sees “persistent factors” to inflation, and on Friday, the Russian Central bank hiked interest rates by 100 basis points to 6.5%.
In a statement, the Bank of Russia said, “The contribution of persistent factors to inflation increased due to faster growth of demand compared to output expansion capacity.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to insist the surge of rising prices is “transitory. But if this is true, why are inflation projections for 2022 rapidly rising? It seems the markets aren’t buying the transitory theme.
Chinese gold imports have nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels and the world’s biggest gold market continues to recover.
According to the latest data reported by the World Gold Council, China imported 67.6 tons of gold in May. That was 65 tons higher than May 2020 and only three tons lower than May 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic gripped the country.
The mainstream narrative is that the Fed will soon admit that inflation isn’t transitory. At that point, it will raise interest rates and taper its bond-buying program to fight rising prices. But this narrative ignores the elephant in the room – the ever-increasing national debt.
In June, the US government ran another big deficit of $174.16 billion, continuing the trend of overspending and massive budget shortfalls.
