Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in October was negative for a third consecutive month, coming in at -$88B. This came on the heels of the largest drop in Money Supply ever last month.
Slowly but surely, physical supplies of gold and silver are being drained from the Comex. This has put pressure on the system. We are now seeing that pressure manifest itself in the data.
The price analysis last month suggested that more time was needed for a sustainable rally. It concluded:
It looks like this market will turn sooner or later. Still, though, support has become resistance so the market has some work ahead of itself. Medium to long-term investors should feel very confident buying at current prices, even if the price action remains choppy in the short-term.
Gold and silver continue to flow out of the COMEX vaults.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Three key takeaways:
- For weeks, the Bitcoin market has looked propped up by the whales, especially after the recent FTX disaster.
- Bitcoin hodlers should strongly consider moving into gold, silver, or at least Ether.
- Full disclosure, I have a complicated relationship with Crypto.
The Federal Government ran a deficit of $88B in October which is down significantly from the deficit last month that was a record for September due to the student loan forgiveness program. The deficit is also down compared to last October which was -$165B.
The perception is that CPI cooled significantly in October, but the data doesn’t quite bear this out.
The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for September came in at 0.44%. The YoY rate was 7.7%, or 7.8% when adjusting for Household Ops. which has not been consistently reported over the last year. The increase was actually above the previous month of 0.38%, but the YoY number fell because last October was 0.87% and fell off the report this month.
Another debt ceiling fight is looming on the horizon and it appears the US Treasury Department is preparing for the drama. Meanwhile, rising interest rates are rapidly increasing the cost of the massive national debt.
Despite the better-than-expected headline number, the job market continues to slow.
According to the BLS, the economy added 261k jobs in October with a big upward revision in September from 263k to 315k. October was a beat against median expectations of 205k. The employment rate (black line) increased from 3.5% to 3.7% while the labor force participation ticked down from 62.3% to 62.2%.
The September Trade Deficit increased for the first time in 6 months to -$73.3B. The deficit had been getting help from exports out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
As shown by the chart below, the increase this month was from a drop in Exports combined with an increase in Imports. The current value is still well below the record set back in March.
