Today, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York admitted that tightening financial conditions could affect the Fed’s “monetary policy decision.” In his February Gold Videocast, Peter Schiff translates William Dudley’s statements: the Fed is not going to be able to keep its promise of raising interest rates four times throughout 2016.
In fact, Peter believes the US is heading into an official recession and that monetary policy will loosen – not tighten – this year. He argues the Fed will soon follow the lead of the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank by lowering interest rates into negative territory. Meanwhile, gold has risen more than 6% in 2016 and is up about 8% since its dip following the Fed’s December rate hike.
Peter Schiff recently appeared on Newmax Prime with J.D. Hayworth and tackled the issue of falling oil prices and crashing stock markets, saying there is no causal relationship between the two. In fact, both are crashing for the same reason:
Wall Street is just trying to blame the carnage in the stock market on oil prices. But that’s not really why stocks are going down. The reality is oil prices and stocks are both going down for the same reason, and it’s because the Federal Reserve is threatening to raise interest rates and the dollar has moved higher. Stocks and the oil price are adjusting down to reflect the higher interest rate and stronger dollar that everybody thinks is coming. But I think they’re wrong, because I think the US economy has already reentered recession. I think the current recession we are in is going to be worse than the one we left in 2009, and I think the Fed is going to be back to its old tricks of 0% interest rates and another round of quantitative easing.”
The downturn in the US stock market is a problem made in America by the Federal Reserve, argued Peter Schiff on the Daily Ledger. The only question now is when will the Fed restart quantitative easing to ensure the Democrats and Hillary Clinton don’t face the same problem Republicans encountered at the end of Bush’s presidency – a lost election thanks to a crumbling economy. Peter thinks they might wait until the US is “officially” in a recession, which could be as long as 7 months from now.
On Wednesday, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund appeared on CNBC and made exactly the same prediction Peter Schiff has been making for months – the Federal Reserve’s next moves will be taking rates back to zero and launching another round of quantitative easing.
It’s important to remember that Ray Dalio doesn’t share Peter’s economic point of view. He is a classic Keynesian who believes the Fed has done an excellent job. He even claimed that “QE saved the economy.” He and Peter probably agree on very little. But Dalio’s remarks bear consideration because he represents the conventional wisdom of today. He believes in central bank intervention and he recognizes that the current state of the US economy demands more of it. To use Peter’s analogy, Dalio wants the drug addict to get more of his favorite drug, and he believes the Fed will deliver.
In his most recent Liberty Report, Ron Paul declared that the economic calamity anticipated by many free market advocates is now at hand.
Paul focused in on the obsession people like Paul Krugman have with deflation, pointing out that it isn’t the problem; it is merely the symptom of an economy trying to correct itself. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve and government central planners seem intent on continuing the very policies that created the underlying problems in the first place:
Concentrating only on deflation and ignoring the unlawful, dangerous powers of the Fed to inflate and regulate will always result in a steady weakening of the economy – the economy which today is facing total collapse. Deflationary pressures do exist. Some debt and malinvestements are being liquidated. But the correction is constantly impeded by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and congressional spending.”
In his most recent interview with Douglass Goldstein, Peter Schiff talked about the massive US debt and its impact on the US economy.
Peter took issue with Paul Krugman’s view that the US government can simply keep borrowing money endlessly, pointing out that it already has more of $100 trillion in liabilities. Peter argues that not only does this bode ill for the future, we’re already reaping the consequences.
Peter Schiff appeared on InfoWars with David Knight and talked about how the Federal Reserve has systematically sabotaged the economy.
Peter made a strong case that the actions of the Fed have created an economy that is even worse than it was seven years ago, before the so-called “Great Recession.” He also observed that the recent rate increase – small as it was – sent markets spiraling downward, just as he predicted, pointing out that it takes a smaller pinprick to pop a bigger bubble. Peter went on to predict the Fed will be forced to launch QE4 and even raised the possibility of more government stimulus in the near future:
They’re going to have to do even more crazy stuff this time because the problem is bigger. Everybody wants to pretend the Fed solved the problem. They didn’t solve anything. The market would have solved our problems if the Fed had allowed it. But the Fed didn’t. The Fed prevented the market from working…As a result, the economy is far more screwed up than it was seven years ago.”
Peter Schiff spoke with CNBC World last night. Just like Futures Now and Yahoo! Finance, the anchor questioned whether or not the Fed is really to blame for market volatility. He thought commodity volatility – particularly oil – played a big role. Peter disabused him of this theory and explained why he expects the Fed to launch QE4 in 2016.
Why are commodities falling in price? It’s because of the Fed… Everybody believes that the Fed is going to be raising interest rates. That is strengthening the dollar, and it is the strength of the dollar that is undermining commodities, because commodities are priced in dollars. If the dollar goes up, commodities become more expensive for everybody who has to pay in a currency other than the dollar. This is the source of all this instability and volatility.”
Last month, Peter Schiff told CNBC the US stock market would fall dramatically if the Federal Reserve hiked rates. That is exactly what has happened in the new year, and when CNBC spoke with Peter yesterday they admitted his prediction had been right. However, they were still skeptical of Peter’s forecast of the economy sliding back into a recession. Notice how Peter’s favorite rival, Scott Nations, kept his mouth shut through the entire interview. Peter noted: “The expression on his face is priceless. I did not even know he was there.” Review their rivalry here.
The markets are going to drop until the Fed changes the game. When is the Fed going to take away the rate hikes? When are they going to cut? When are they going to launch QE4? That’s the only thing that’s going to put a floor beneath the market, because the economy is going into recession.”