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U.S. consumer confidence suffered a sharp blow yesterday, plummeting 7.2 points to 92.9, according to the latest data from the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Alarmingly, the Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook on the economy, tumbled to 65.2—its lowest level in 12 years—breaking well below the critical 80-point threshold that traditionally signals an […]
In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at around 4.3% on Wednesday but signaled potential rate cuts later this year, highlighting policymakers’ growing concerns over slowing economic growth and persistent inflation pressures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that external economists have revised upward their estimates of a recession […]
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is right when he says that the economy needs a “detox.” To fix the problems created by decades of artificially-low interest rates, soaring deficits, out-of-control spending, a dying manufacturing base, and central bank meddling, there has to be a little bit (or a lot) of pain.
The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.
Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.
With trade wars popping in and out of headlines during the Trump presidency, there are no guarantees when it comes to foreign exchange. As tariffs, bailouts, and central banks all affect exchange rates, it’s worth revisiting what causes the international economy to demand the almighty US dollar.
Last week’s inflation data confirms what many economists have been saying for months: the Fed’s inflation target is not achievable anytime soon. In fact, many economic signals suggest the opposite: inflation is here to stay, and even the Fed realizes it.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made a definitive statement during Tuesday’s Senate hearing, affirming that as long as he remains at the helm, the Fed will not develop its own digital currency. During his semiannual testimony on monetary policy and regulation, Powell was asked by Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) if he would commit to forgoing […]
The Government debt binge has slowed in the latest month, adding only $2B in new debt for January.
In the wake of last week’s FOMC meeting, it’s worth revisiting the economic function of interest rates, which guide economic activity in accordance with societal time preference. In order to suppress the natural rate of interest, central banks must resort to inflation.
Shortly after yesterday’s FOMC announcement, Peter went live to unpack its aftermath. He criticizes the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady, offers insight into Jerome Powell’s press conference remarks, and skewers the notion that the Fed remains “apolitical.” Peter also addresses President Trump’s evolving commentary on oil prices and interest rate cuts as 2025’s […]
