Peter’s Blog

Americans are already struggling to feed their families and pay their bills, but having predicted every US recession since 1960, the flattening bond yield curve is speaking loud and clear that an “official” downturn is nearly inevitable. With bond prices on the rise as the Fed looks increasingly likely to cut rates in September, the […]

Earlier this year, we discussed the likelihood of the yen carry trade unwinding under the BoJ’s decision to end decades of zero-interest rate policy, or ZIRP. That unwinding now appears to be entering full swing.

As the Chinese central bank slashes interest rates in a bid to save its floundering economy, and the Bank of Japan continually intervenes to the tune of billions to save its dying yen, wealthy Chinese consumers are headed in droves to Japan to take advantage of the exchange rate and load up on fancy goods. […]

The increasingly desperate, secretive Chinese Communist Party may be powerless to stop the combination of downward trends which, upon passing an event horizon, could trigger a global collapse as the world’s second-largest national economy continues to edge closer to the brink.

The recent CPI report showed that inflation is, according to official data, cooling down — so why are consumers more worried for the future than they’ve been in months? If prices are coming down, shouldn’t that fuel higher confidence and a greater collective sense of economic well-being? One simple answer is that the official data […]

An inverted Treasury yield curve has historically been associated with economic downturns, preceding every recession since the late 1960s. Earlier this year, it set a new record for remaining inverted for more than 624 days, which was the 1978 record.

After nearly 10 months of issuing mostly short-term debt, the Treasury finally issued Notes in 2 of the last 3 months.

The message is loud and clear: The Japanese economy has no tolerance for higher interest rates after the Bank of Japan has kept them artificially near zero for decades. Meanwhile, as the largest holders of US Treasury debt, Japan’s economic well-being has become inextricably dependent on the capricious whims of Federal Reserve monetary policy — […]

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

In the fight against inflation, is it the Fed or the Treasury that calls the shots? The answer is, it’s both. The Fed raises interest rates to make loans less attractive and bring inflation down, but The Treasury has its own set of magic tricks to artificially “stimulate” or “tighten” the economy as well. One of […]